Nikki Haley's presidential campaign has been awaiting the Republican primaries in her home state of South Carolina, where she was twice elected governor, for weeks. The new round of voting takes place this Saturday (24).
After losing to former President Donald Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire, then Nevada and the Virgin Islands, Haley's bid for the Republican Party's presidential nomination is in jeopardy.
Haley's condition appears to tip the scales even more towards Trump. The former president led in every poll in South Carolina, even after Haley entered the race.
The majority of Republican elected officials in the state support Trump, and based on the “eye test” – especially when it comes to crowd sizes at campaign rallies – the former president's victory appears certain.
Can Trump end the dispute?
“We know the odds. We know what's at stake,” Haley's campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, said Friday. “With our eyes wide open, we will take the arrows, we will take the stones, but we are focused on the fight ahead.”
The “local candidate” insists that, regardless of the result, she will continue until Super Tuesday – the day on which several states choose their preferences for the presidential race – in March and potentially beyond.
Earlier this week, she told her supporters — and others who questioned her staying power — that she was trying hard.
However, Trump still has the support of more than 60% of Republican primary voters in several recent polls – far surpassing Haley, who hovered around 30%.
Attention should then turn to Trump's margin of victory. The question: Is there a difference that could make Haley rethink her plans to continue running?
Why is Haley still in the running?
The pre-candidate has intensified her criticism of her rival in recent weeks, focusing particularly on the trials the former president faces, the fact that Trump avoids associating Putin with the death of Alexey Navalny, and his and Biden's advanced age.
Haley told CNN International last week that both Trump and Biden are “mentally diminished”.
“I’m not going anywhere,” Haley said. “I'm fighting this, because we have a country to save. I'm fighting this because I don't want my children to live like this. I don’t want anyone’s children to live like this.”
What are your chances in South Carolina?
Defeat is most likely, although Haley won an unexpected victory in the 2010 primary.
She and her allies far outspent Trump on advertising, with nearly $15 million invested targeting the South Carolina primary, compared to $1.3 million spent by the Trump campaign, although pro-Trump ads have increased in recent weeks.
Even though Haley and her allies' campaign spending is much higher than Trump's, it is less than half of what was spent in New Hampshire or Iowa, two states she lost.
Much of what made Haley a national political figure — her call as governor to remove the Confederate flag from the statehouse — is frowned upon by the state's conservative Republican Party base.
She has conflicts with almost all state leaders. Trump, however, dominated the state. South Carolina was the only one on the East Coast where he won by double digits in the 2020 general election.
Haley's hopes lie in the fact that the South Carolina primary will be open. This means Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican race.
These are the voters, along with more traditional conservatives, who make up the (theoretical) Haley coalition. And they know that any result other than a strong showing from the former governor could mean the end.
New Hampshire was a similar opportunity, in terms of voting rules, and Trump still won the Republican primary by 11 points, with 54% of the vote.
Keeping an eye on Super Tuesday
Haley's campaign hopes the “life and death” situation will serve as a call for a belated anti-Trump push. One that could be taken to other states with open primaries, like Michigan next week and Texas and Virginia on Super Tuesday.
Even if she loses South Carolina, strictly speaking, Haley would not be out of the race, as at least 1,215 delegates are needed to secure the nomination.
Only 50 delegates are at stake in the state. Heading into the South Carolina primaries, Trump leads with 63 delegates to Haley's 17. So there is still a long way to go.
The biggest pot of delegates will be up for grabs on Super Tuesday, on March 5th. The first day Trump can reach his delegate target will be March 12.
The mathematics of delegates
South Carolina awards 29 of its delegates to the statewide winner and three more to the winner in each of its seven congressional districts.
Although it's still early on the primary calendar, it's getting late for Haley. More than 850 delegates will be at stake on Super Tuesday on March 5, when states like California and Texas vote. This represents about 35% of the entire delegate pot.
Haley then targets the delegates from her home state to close the gap and not be mathematically out of the race.
But if Trump wins at his rival's house tonight, the viability of Haley's candidacy will be in question.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
