US has few ways to track weapons it sends to Ukraine

The United States has few ways to trace the substantial supply of anti-tank, anti-aircraft and other weaponry it has shipped across the border into Ukraine, sources tell CNNa blind spot that is largely due to the lack of Americans in the country — and the easy portability of many of the smaller systems that now cross the border.

It’s a conscious risk the Biden administration is willing to take.

In the short term, the US sees the transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment as vital to the Ukrainians’ ability to prevent an invasion of Moscow. A senior defense official said Tuesday that it is “certainly the biggest recent supply to a partner country in a conflict”.

But the risk, say current US officials and defense analysts, is that in the long term, some of these weapons could end up in the hands of other militaries and militias that the US did not intend to arm.

“We have allegiance for a short time, but when it goes into the fog of war, we have almost zero,” said a source familiar with US intelligence. “He [o armamento] falls into a big black hole, and you are almost unaware of it after a short period of time.”

In making the decision to ship billions of dollars of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, the Biden administration considered the risk that some of the shipments would end up in unexpected places, a defense official said.
But right now, the official said, the administration views failure to adequately arm Ukraine as a greater risk.

Since the US military is not on the ground, the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) rely heavily on information provided by the government of Ukraine. In particular, officials recognize that Ukraine has an incentive to give only information that will bolster its case for more aid, more weapons and more diplomatic assistance.

“It’s a war – everything they do and say publicly is designed to help them win the war. Every public statement is an information operation, every interview, every Zelensky appearance is an information operation,” said another source familiar with Western intelligence. “It doesn’t mean they are wrong to do so anyway.”

For months, US and Western officials have been offering detailed accounts of what the West knows about the status of Russian forces inside Ukraine: how many casualties they have taken, their remaining combat power, their weapons stockpiles, what types of ammunition they are using. and where.

But when it comes to Ukrainian forces, officials acknowledge that the West – including the US – has some information gaps.

Western estimates of Ukrainian casualties are also hazy, according to two sources familiar with US and Western intelligence.

“It’s difficult to track down with anyone on the ground,” said a source familiar with the intelligence.

Visibility Issues

The Biden administration and NATO countries say they are supplying Ukraine with weapons based on what Ukrainian forces say they need, whether it be portable systems like the Javelin and Stinger missiles or the Slovak S-300 air defense system that has been deployed over the past week.

Javelin and Stinger missiles, and rifles and ammunition, are naturally more difficult to track than larger systems like the S-300, which was shipped by rail. While Javelins have serial numbers, there are few ways to track their transfer and use in real time, say sources familiar with the matter.

Last week, the US agreed to supply Kiev with high-powered weapons just a few weeks ago, which some Biden administration officials deemed an excessive escalation risk, including 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 18,155mm Howitzer cannons and an additional 300 drones. Switchblade. But much of that support has yet to arrive – and Switchblade razors are single-use, mobile ships that would likely also be difficult to track after the fact.

“I couldn’t say where they are in Ukraine and if Ukrainians are using them right now. They’re not telling us every round of ammunition they’re firing and who and at what time. We may never know exactly how far they are using Switchblades.

Senior US Defense Officer

The Defense Department does not allocate the weapons it sends to private units, according to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby.

Trucks loaded with weapon pallets provided by the Defense Department are picked up by the Ukrainian military — mostly in Poland — and then driven to Ukraine, Kirby said, “so it’s up to the Ukrainians to determine where they go and how they’re allocated within their country.”

A congressional source pointed out that while the U.S. is not on the ground in Ukraine, the U.S. has tools to find out what is going on beyond what the Ukrainians are saying, as it makes extensive use of satellite imagery and both the Ukrainian and Russian armed forces. appear to be using commercial communication equipment.

Another congressional source said the US military’s opinion of the information it is receiving from Ukraine is generally reliable, because the US has been training and equipping the Ukrainian military for eight years, developing strong relationships. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some blind spots, the source said, as with issues like the operational status of Ukraine’s S-300s.

Jordan Cohen, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the CATO Institute, which focuses on arms sales, said the biggest danger surrounding the flow of arms being funneled into Ukraine is what happens to them when the war ends or transitions into some kind of protracted stalemate.

Such a risk is part of any consideration for sending weapons abroad. For decades, the US sent weapons to Afghanistan, first to arm the mujahideen in their fight against the Soviet army, then to arm the Afghan forces in their fight against the Taliban.

Inevitably, some weapons ended up on the black market, including Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, the same type the US is now supplying to Ukraine.

The United States struggled to recover Stingers after the Soviet war in Afghanistan. They couldn’t find all of them, and when the US itself invaded Afghanistan in 2001, some officials feared they could be used by the Taliban against the US.

Other weapons ended up arming American adversaries. Much of what the US left behind to help Afghan forces became part of the Taliban’s arsenal after the collapse of the Afghan government and military.

The problem is not unique to Afghanistan. Weapons sold to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates ended up in the hands of fighters linked to al-Qaeda and Iran.

The risk of a similar scenario happening in Ukraine also exists, acknowledged the defense official. In 2020, the Department of Defense inspector general released a report raising concerns about monitoring the end-use of weapons being shipped to Ukraine.

But given the near-insatiable short-term needs of Ukrainian forces for more weapons and ammunition, the long-term risk of weapons ending up on the black market or in the wrong hands was deemed acceptable, the official said.

This might be an issue 10 years from now, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be something we think about now. More than 50 million munitions – all these munitions will not only be used to fight the Russians. Eventually, these ammunition will be misused, intentionally or not.

Jordan Cohen, Defense and Foreign Policy Analyst at the CATO Institute

Russian threat

Authorities are less concerned – at least for now – about the weapons falling into Russian hands. The intelligence source noted that Russia’s failure to hold large swaths of territory or force the surrender of many Ukrainian units means that these weapons have either been used or remain in Ukrainian hands.

And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has actively attacked Western arms shipments entering Ukraine – although it is unclear exactly why, especially as the US has intelligence the Russians want and has discussed doing so. both publicly and privately.

There are a number of theories as to why the shipments have been spared so far, this person added, including one about Russian forces simply not being able to find them – the weapons and equipment are being shipped in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that Russian forces are running out of ammunition and don’t want to waste it targeting random trucks unless they can be sure they are part of a weapons convoy.

Although on Monday (18) Russia claimed to have destroyed a warehouse “near Lviv” which contained “large shipments” of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States and European countries, the CNN was unable to verify the claim.

But generally speaking, Russia also lacks perfect visibility of intelligence in Ukraine, this source noted, and its air capabilities over western Ukraine, where shipments are arriving, are extremely limited due to Ukrainian air defense systems.

Publicly, the Pentagon says it has yet to see Russian attempts to stop arms transfers or shipments moving within Ukraine.

“Flights are still going to transshipment locations in the region. And land movements of this material are still occurring within Ukraine. Every day, there is the security assistance, weapons and support material and equipment that is coming into the hands of the Ukrainians,” Kirby said on Thursday.

“We’re going to keep doing this as long as we can, as quickly as possible. We have not seen any Russian efforts to interdict this flow. And so we’re going to keep doing it,” he added. “We constantly look at it every day, monitor it, modify it, adapt it as needed.”