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US: Inflation eases to 3% year-on-year vs. 3.1% forecast, Fed could cut rates in September

He The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has moderated by three-tenths in the year-on-year reading for June, standing at 3% compared with 3.3% in May, its lowest level in a year, according to the Labor Department. The figure is better than the 3.1% expected by the market.

Monthly inflation fell by 0.1% from 0% the previous month, falling below the 0.1% increase forecast by experts. This is the first decline seen since May 2020.

He Core CPI, excluding food and energy, stood at 3.3% compared to the previous and estimated 3.4%. This is its lowest level since April 2021. The monthly indicator has grown by 0.1%, below the previous 0.2%. The consensus estimated that growth would remain at 0.2%.

Dollar reaction

The Dollar Index (DXY) has plunged on the news, falling from around 104.90 to 104.32, a new one-month low.

Chances of a Fed rate cut in September rise

The sharp decline in the dollar following the softening of inflation gives the US Federal Reserve reasons to make its first rate cut of the year at its September meeting. FedWatch tool has raised the chances of this downgrade to 81.2% minutes after the publicationwhen yesterday it was below 72%.

Source: Fx Street

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