Intercepted communications obtained by the United States revealed that some Russian officials fear that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be more expensive and more difficult than Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin leaders imagine. The reports are from four American intelligence people.
Three of them said that these Russian officials include intelligence agents as well as the military.
The Russians also complained that their plans were discovered and publicly exposed by Western nations, two of the sources said, citing intercepted communications.
There is no evidence that these officials oppose the overall plan or would revolt against Putin’s orders, two of the sources said. Another source with transit among US intelligence noted that Russia has a professional army that must effectively carry out what the president orders.
According to a European official, still, the Russian military believes it will be a difficult decision. “In the evaluations, we see that it is clear that some people on the defense side [russa] are not really understanding what the game plan is,” the official said. The official added that assessments suggest that defense officials believe it is “a very difficult game plan to defend.”
Another of the US intelligence sources said the way Russian planning has evolved and expanded over the past two months suggests that the concerns have been heard by senior Russian officials.
Authorities told the CNN on Saturday Putin had already assembled 70% of the military personnel and weapons on Ukraine’s borders he would need for a full-scale invasion of the country. Some assessments indicate he may be planning to try to take Ukraine’s capital Kiev, they said, and the city could collapse within 48 hours after a full-scale ground and air invasion.
Another possibility, officials said, is that Putin could decide on a multi-pronged operation, sending forces from various directions across Ukraine to quickly break the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight as a single force — a classic Russian military strategy.
“We’ve long said that Putin continues to increase his options and capabilities, and we’ve been equally transparent about some of the moves we believe he intends to make to justify some sort of military action,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters. CNN this Monday (7). “We will also continue to help Ukraine defend itself better with both lethal and non-lethal assistance.”
US officials say publicly and privately that they do not yet know whether Putin will decide to attack, and what form it would take if he did. This is largely because US visibility of Putin and his inner circle is still extremely limited, the sources told CNN.
According to them, the US has very solid information about the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian military. Many of these officials were involved in the current troop buildup near Ukraine, which has given the US better-than-usual visibility into Russian planning.
But American intelligence is still largely isolated from Putin and top Russian officials, who are normally isolated from the lower-level agents who carry out the Kremlin’s orders.
Even so, many of the preparations for a possible conflict were discovered and easier to detect. Russia has continued to build up its forces near Ukraine’s borders, including more advanced deployments in Belarus and Crimea, according to satellite imagery taken by Maxar Technologies and provided to CNN.
The images show that new housing and military camps have sprung up in the last two weeks. The Americans have seen indications that Russia has begun building supply lines, such as medical units and fuel, that could sustain a protracted conflict if Moscow decides to invade, officials told CNN.
“Given the type of forces that are willing … if this were to be unleashed in Ukraine it would be significant, very significant and would result in a significant amount of casualties,” said Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
“You can imagine what it would be like in dense urban areas, along highways and so on. It would be awful. It would be terrible. And it is not necessary. We think a diplomatic outcome is the way to go here.”
However, another US official said the diplomatic path was narrower than ever. “We are in Ave Maria territory,” he said.
Source: CNN Brasil
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