The population of the United States goes to the polls this Tuesday (8) for the midterm elections – known in the country as “midterms – -, which put at stake the majority that Democrats ensure in Congress and the future of the administration. of President Joe Biden.
US voters will choose all 435 deputies in the House of Representatives (the country’s Federal Chamber) and 35 of the 100 senators, in addition to governors in 36 of the country’s 50 states.
Today, President Joe Biden’s party enjoys a narrow majority in Congress. In the House, there are 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans and three vacant seats. The Senate is split “50 to 50”, but Democrats have the tie-breaking vote; in the US, whoever occupies the vice presidency — Kamala Harris, currently — also holds the presidency of the Senate.
THE CNN International publishes projections for the election based on Inside Election, a portal that presents non-partisan analysis of campaigns. It is worth remembering that the projections are not official numbers, which will only be consolidated after the polls have been counted.
Until this Monday (7), the survey indicates that the Republicans are ahead of the Democrats in the House and Congressional disputes – with the possibility, even, to take control of both houses.
The loss of the majority in Congress would mean for the Joe Biden administration and for the Democrats greater difficulty in handling the agendas of the legislative houses, the committees and the government budget.
The race for the Chamber
In Tuesday’s elections, all 435 parliamentarians who will occupy the House of Representatives for the next two years will be chosen.
The House, like the Chamber of Deputies in Brazil, is considered by the American Constitution to be the part of the federal government that acts closest to the population. Therefore, the seats of the deputies are put up for dispute every two years, in order to allow voters to influence the public administration more frequently.
To secure a majority in the House, Republicans or Democrats must win at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives.
With a majority in the House (220 to 212), Democrat Nancy Pelosi has presided over the House since 2018. Before her, Republicans led the House for eight consecutive years, during the Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrations.
According to CNN International , the current scenario shows the Republicans ahead in the dispute for 216 seats; the Democrats, at 199. Another 20 seats are competitively raced.
The Senate race
In the United States, senators serve six-year terms. Elections for the position are held every two years, with renewal of about a third of the House. The seats are divided into three “classes”, and in 2022 the seats of “class III” parliamentarians are at stake.
During the Donald Trump administration (2017-2021), Republicans controlled a majority of the Senate. In the last elections, which also marked the victory of Biden, the scenario was reversed.
The House is now made up of 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. In addition, there are two independent senators, who also vote with the Democrats. With the 50-50, Vice President Kamala Harris has the tie-breaking vote.
In this cycle, 35 seats will be disputed. Seven states have “open” races for their seats — that is, the Democrat or Republican who occupies them will not run for reelection. This is the case with disputes in Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Vermont.
To win a majority of the House, Republicans must win 22 of the 35 seats up for grabs. Democrats need to win by 14.
The projections released by the CNN International show that Democrats are currently ahead in the race for 12 seats; the Republicans at 20. There are still three seats where the races are open.
Congress and Biden’s Future
According to Fernanda Magnotta, coordinator of the FAAP’s International Relations course and a specialist in US politics, there is a tendency in the US for the opposition party to the president to advance in the midterm elections.
“The inclination of the American voter is to vote for the Executive’s opposition to guarantee this balance, a permanent search for checks and balances. And there is certainly an influence from the recent results of the economy, with inflationary pressure. This greatly affected President Biden’s popularity and his ability to act,” she says.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.1% in August, according to federal government data. In the last 12 months, the accumulated index rose to 8.2%.
The expert points out that the congressional elections directly impact the direction of Joe Biden’s administration at the head of the country, especially if the Republicans regain control of the Houses. She reports two main effects for the Biden administration: a practical one, related to the loss of the ability to guide political debate, and a symbolic one.
“From a practical point of view, this affects the governance capacity of the president. Congress is responsible for setting the budget. The majority of Congress is what guarantees the majority of the committees. They, in a way, manage to determine the agenda, how the game is going to be played,” he says.
Magnotta explains that, in addition to directly impacting public policies related to the economy, whether or not having a majority in Congress defines the future of agendas such as abortion rights, immigration and gun control in the United States, which are of interest to Democrats. She points out that there is room for bipartisan agendas, but that it is narrow, given the polarization currently observed in the country.
The second effect, according to her, is related to the president’s popularity. “It has a symbolic effect of rejection, because it is a way for the electorate to express themselves in relation to the president”, says Magnotta.
races by governments
In Tuesday’s election, voters in 36 states choose their state governors. Check the states below:
In the US, the electoral calendar is not unified, and states have different legislation regarding the term of office of governors. Forty-eight of the 50 states elect them to four-year terms; two states, New Hampshire and Vermont, for two years.
Magnotta explains that the Biden administration also turns its attention to state governments in order to ensure the advancement of their priority agendas.
“One way for Democrats to manage losses at the federal level, should they occur, is to at least try to pursue more liberal legislation, such as for abortion itself and other issues, within the states,” he says.
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
