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US NFP: Wage growth loses traction amid strong job creation – UOB

Alvin Liew, Chief Economist at UOB Group, discusses the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls released on January 6.

main conclusions

The US closed 2022 exceeding expectationswith 223,000 jobs added in December, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching the lowest level in 50 yearswhile the number of unemployed fell by 228,000 to 5.77 million. Wage growth continued, but the pace was below expectationsat 0.3% mom and 4.6% yoy (below Bloomberg estimates and November numbers).”

Slow job creation (compared to the first half of 2023) and wage growth returning below 5% may give the Federal Reserve (Fed) some reassurance that the risk of a wage price spiral is not imminent, but is unlikely to deter further increases in the first quarter of 2023. Us and the markets we continue to assign a high probability that the Fed will raise rates another 50 basis points, to 4.75-5.00%, in the FOMC of January 31 and February 1, 2023“.

Source: Fx Street

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