Covid-19 levels have been rising in the United States for weeks as new variants drive what has become an annual summer surge.
Covid-19 surveillance has been significantly reduced since the US public health emergency ended more than a year ago – individual cases are no longer counted and severe outcomes are based on representative samples of the population – but the available data show a consistent upward trend.
Infections are likely rising in at least 38 states, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Wastewater surveillance suggests viral activity is still relatively low, but hospitalizations and deaths are also rising.
Covid-19 levels are especially high on the West Coast, where viral levels have returned to February levels, and in the South, according to the CDC.
“The virus tends to replicate well and stay alive in warm, moist environments. That fits with what we’re seeing,” said Dr. Robert Hopkins, chief medical officer of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, a nonprofit public health organization. “The South and the West are humid and warm right now.”
The summer surge has become a familiar seasonal pattern, but experts warn that the coronavirus can still be quite unpredictable.
“I think it’s still a little early to say what the standard is,” Hopkins said. “A large part of the population has had some exposure to the virus, the peaks have been a little less high and we tend to see an increase in the summer as well as an increase in the winter. But whether this pattern will continue or whether it will become a year-round disease or whether it will remain in a specific period – I think it’s a little early to say.”
Data from WastewaterSCAN, a national sewage surveillance network based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, suggests this summer surge began weeks before last summer’s surge and reached levels similar to the summer 2023 peak.
“It remains to be seen whether this will be a maximum level for this increase,” said Dr. Marlene Wolfe, assistant professor of environmental health at Emory and director of the WastewaterSCAN program.
“We’re always trying to figure out what the potential seasonality is with Covid and also what the impacts are of new variants that may be emerging that are driving these outbreaks that we see more regularly, more frequently than we see for flu and RSV. “, she said.
In recent months, the JN.1 virus variant that drove this winter’s surge has been overtaken by newer offshoots. These so-called FLiRT variants — an acronym that refers to the locations of the amino acid mutations the virus has detected — have changes in some places that help them evade the body’s immune response and in others that help them become more transmissible. Two of them – KP.3 and KP.2 – are now responsible for more than half of new Covid infections in the US, according to CDC data.
Expect an updated vaccine this fall
Due to production deadlines, experts have to make predictions now if they want a new vaccine for the fall.
Earlier this month, the FDA endorsed a plan to update Covid-19 vaccines to be more effective against the JN.1 strain of the coronavirus. But the agency later updated its own recommendation. Vaccine makers have been advised to target the KP.2 strain if possible, in part due to the “recent increase in cases”.
“JN.1 has continued to evolve and makes it a little bit difficult to choose the specific strain to use,” Dr. Jerry Weir, director of the Division of Viral Products in the Office of Vaccine Research and Review in the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, told an independent advisory committee before the initial recommendation.
It is anticipated that the new vaccines – some of which will move to the KP.2 target – will be available between mid-August and late September. That’s enough time to offer protection during the winter respiratory virus season, but likely after this summer’s wave has subsided.
The CDC on Thursday recommended that everyone six months and older get an updated Covid-19 vaccine for the 2024-25 season. The recommendation echoes the vote of the agency’s independent advisory committee.
“It makes sense to get this vaccine at the same time that you expect flu and RSV, because you just want to reduce the overall incidence of the disease,” Dr. Marcus Plescia, medical director of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said. to CNN.
Protection from COVID-19 vaccines wanes, and the timing of injections prioritizes maximum protection, when higher and more sustained spikes typically occur, Plescia said. Unlike flu and RSV, COVID-19 is constantly circulating; it doesn’t offer a reprieve.
“You never get a break,” he said. “We have a break from the flu and RSV. You get through the season and that’s it. You can prepare for the next one. [Covid] is always there.”
Flu and RSV levels remain low in the US, according to the CDC’s latest update. But vaccination rates for the three main respiratory viruses lagged during the winter season, and CDC advisors also brought forward the upcoming season with discussions around vaccine coverage recommendations for influenza and RSV.
On Wednesday, the CDC updated its recommendations for who should get the RSV vaccine. For the upcoming respiratory virus season, everyone 75 and older should get an RSV vaccine, as well as those ages 60 to 74 who are at higher risk for severe disease.
The changes are intended to “simplify decision-making about RSV vaccines for clinicians and the public,” the agency said.
When it comes to infectious respiratory diseases, Plescia said, “people need to remember that there are things they can do to reduce their risk. And getting vaccinated is the main one.”
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
