In a preview of next week’s key macroeconomic data releases from the United States, “Retail sales likely fell modestly in April after a 9.7% month-on-month increase driven by stimulus payments in March,” analysts at TD Securities.
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“Our forecast implies a strong start to the second quarter relative to the first quarter average, consistent with consumer spending adding again significantly to GDP growth. That said, we expect spending on goods to continue to decline on a monthly basis in the months ahead as stimulus momentum fades. “
“We advise against extrapolation, according to Fed officials citing” transitory “factors, but an increase in used car prices, along with strong gains related to the reopening in airfare and hotel rates. , probably led to a strong rally in the core CPI. The effects will be added to year-on-year data. We forecast 3.7% / 2.5% year-on-year for total / core prices, up from 2.6% / 1.6% in March. “
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