The rapid construction of three suspected silo fields in China – which could eventually be capable of launching long-range nuclear missiles – seems to indicate that Beijing is investing substantial efforts and resources in developing its nuclear capabilities, according to analysis of new commercial images of satellite.
Experts at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a non-partisan national security research and advocacy organization, found that China has made significant progress in suspicious silo fields in the western part of the country.
“For China, this is an unprecedented nuclear advance,” wrote Matt Korda and Hans M. Kristensen, the authors of the FAS report, released this Tuesday (2nd).
The authors noted that, “missile silo fields are still many years from becoming fully operational, and it remains to be seen how China will arm and operate them.”
However, recent reports of Chinese activities have raised concerns among US officials about China’s rapid military progress. The suspected development of a first missile silo field was reported in late June.
After another FAS report released in July on the suspected development of a second silo camp in China, the US Strategic Command tweeted: “This is the second time in two months that the public has discovered what we’ve been saying about the growing threat the world faces, and the veil of secrecy that surrounds it. ”
Navy Admiral Charles A. Richard, head of US Strategic Command, said in August that “we are witnessing a strategic retreat by China.”
“The explosive growth and modernization of its nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I describe as breathtaking. And frankly, that breathtaking word might not be enough,” he said.
Commercial satellite imagery, produced by Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs, analyzed by the FAS provides some of the most detailed images of three suspected missile silo fields, where the Chinese appear to be building about 300 new missile silos.
“What’s remarkable is the scale and speed, which is way beyond what the Chinese have done in missile silos before,” Kristensen told CNN.
CNN contacted the Chinese government to comment on the new report.
China’s continued development of silos comes at a time when the country is significantly strengthening its military capabilities.
The US said China had tested a hypersonic weapon in recent months, which US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley called “very troubling.” He also said that “Chinese military capabilities are much greater” than that presented during the tests.
However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the August test was “a spacecraft, not a missile.”
China has long committed to a policy of minimal deterrence, which means it keeps its nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary to prevent an adversary from attacking. It is believed to have about a tenth of Russia’s and the US’s nuclear weapons, as well as a no-first-use policy known as “No first use – NFU”.
A change in China’s approach?
Some experts and officials say recent developments raise questions about China’s commitment to NFU policy.
Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China appointed by Biden, said during his confirmation hearing in October that the Chinese “are leaving behind that stance,” of not using it first, “and are quickly involved in building their weapons including the disruptive developments of hypersonic technology,” Burns said.
Benjamin Friedman, the policy director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities, said he believed China had not changed its policy. “We shouldn’t necessarily consider developing more missiles as a different approach from the Chinese side, they may think that the same approach requires more weapons than before.”
According to Friedman, “the United States has long continued to seek to increase its first-strike capability against all nuclear adversaries.” This means, according to the expert, increasing the number of nuclear weapons capable of destroying the enemy’s arsenal “at once”.
For him, China’s stance means much more strengthening its options for an eventual response. For this, the country believes that it may “need a little more security” a first American attack.
Kristensen of the FAS said the construction of the silo fields “probably has to do with the fact that the Chinese leadership has just decided that China has to be big militarily, and the nuclear forces have to match that.”
He also noted that China’s increased arsenal “reduces the possibility of anyone taking it down in a surprise attack.”
It’s unclear whether the US will be able to know if these silos are full of missiles, raising many questions for the US regarding its determination to contain or compete with China’s military development.
Some experts point out that this could be part of China’s strategy.
Vipin Narang, professor of political science with a focus on nuclear proliferation and strategy at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), says China’s strategy could cause the United States to dispense with a larger arsenal in an eventual need to destroy the new silos to contain the Chinese rise. “We would have to commit to destroying all (the silos). If that’s the case, the United States will have to commit perhaps twice as many warheads,” he said.
The implication of this, according to Narang, would be that the United States would have to rethink nuclear planning.
Images from the US documents also reveal that China appears to be building other types of support facilities around the silos, Kristensen said. These facilities are about the size of a football stadium and are designed to protect the silo construction area from environmental factors.
The experts who produced the documents also noted that the shelters may have been built to “hide technical details” from the view of American satellites flying over the area in search of information on the development of China’s military arsenal.
(Translated text. Read the original here.)
Reference: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
