The worst of the commercial war between the US and China has probably passed, although we foresee and turn ahead. With a substantial reduction of tariffs, we now estimate an impact on the GDP of 0.6-1.0PPT due to US USA tariffs can retain additional fiscal stimuli unless bilateral commercial tensions are re-laughed, Standard Chartered economists point out.
A contingency plan is intended for contingencies
“The US and China have agreed to reduce tariff What the markets expected, although if the commercial war during Trump’s first mandate offers a guide, we see this agreement as the beginning of a potentially long and rugged trip. “
“The 30% tariff would cut the growth of China’s GDP by approximately 0.6PPT in the next 12 months, according to our estimate. If the 24% tariff is re -applied after the 90 -day pause, the impact on GDP would increase to approximately 1.0PPT. We estimate that the complete implementation of the fiscal package approved in March would largely compensate the impact of the tariffs. If the bilateral negotiations take a turn unfavorable, we hope that the government implements additional fiscal stimuli, as guided by the Politburo meeting in April.
“After the recent PBOC flexibility measures, which were largely in line with our expectations, we maintain our forecast of another 10pbs cut in the policy rate in the fourth quarter. We do not expect cuts in the RRR for the rest of the year unless additional fiscal stimuli are introduced. We reduce our IPC inflation forecast by 2025 to -0.1% from 0.7% for 0.7% for 0.7% for 0.7% for 0.7% for 0.7% for 0.7% Reflect the deflationary impact of the global tariff war in China and in economies other than that of the US “
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
