USA: Democrats should have a minority in Congress, but Republican wave does not materialize

The first results of the midterm elections in the United States suggest confirmation of the prediction that the Republican Party, under former President Donald Trump, would regain a majority in Congress – but with a much less landslide victory than expected. Democrats showed strength at the polls, with fierce races in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

In the Chamber, the republican triumph is more assured, although smaller than expected. Traditionally it is like this: the opposition party to the government tends to win seats in the Chamber in the midterm elections. In all, there are 435 seats: to have a majority, a party must win at least 218 of them.

In 2022, the low approval ratings of the government of Joe Biden (only 39%, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll) and dissatisfaction with the economic scenario in the country created the expectation of a “red wave”, a reference to the color that represents the Republican Party. But in reality, the opposition’s victory must be much more discreet than that.

In the Senate, the dispute is even fiercer. There are 100 seats, 35 of which are at stake in these elections. Today, the Senate is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, with US Vice President Kamala Harris in Minerva’s vote – which guarantees a narrow majority for Joe Biden’s party. It is not yet possible to know what the Senate configuration will be from now on; Democrats scored victories in states considered key to the race, such as Pennsylvania.

In addition to congressional seats, the positions of 36 state governors and other local officials are also at stake. In these races, the defeat of Republican candidates who refuse to accept the result of the 2020 elections stands out – at least 22 candidates from the party for state government do not admit that Biden won. This was the case in New York, for example, where Republican Representative Lee Zeldin, who was against the certification of Biden’s victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania, lost to the current governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul.