Alvin Liew, Chief Economist at UOB Group, analyzes the latest US GDP figures for the October-December period.
Main conclusions
“The advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 surprised to the upside with a 2.9% qoq SAAR expansion (vs. 2.6% forecast by Bloomberg), versus an unchanged 3.2% in the third quarter. Compared to a year ago, US GDP grew +1.0% year-on-year in Q4, up from 1.9% in Q3. For the full year, US GDP grew 2.1% in 2022, up from 5.9% in 2021.”
“The 2.9% expansion in the fourth quarter was driven by volatile private inventories, which contributed half of the gain, while government spending rose at the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2021. Although private consumption spending (PCE) rose in the fourth quarter, coming in below expectations and, along with disappointment in inflation-adjusted sales to private domestic buyers, increased concerns about the US consumer, weighed down by an inflationary environment Non-residential fixed investment (business spending) also rose at a much slower pace in the fourth quarter, while net exports contributed mainly due to weak imports, again pointing to demand concerns US internal.”
perspectives of US GDP – by 2023: “We continue to expect the US economy to slip into a shallow recession due to a combination of high inflation, aggressive Fed rate hikes and slowing global growth with a recession We stand by our forecast for US GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2023. The US labor market remains incredibly resilient and we don’t expect the US to fall into a deeper recession unless there is a tightening cycle the longest and most abrupt Fed.”
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
