- The US Jolts Employment Data will be observed closely before the publication of the Non -Agricultural Payroll Reports on Friday.
- Employment offers are expected to decrease to 7.55 million in June.
- The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials by establishing interest rates.
The Employment and Work Rotation Survey (Jolts) will be published on Tuesday by the United States Labor Statistics Office (BLS). The publication will provide data on the change in the number of job offers in June, together with the number of layoffs and renunciations.
Jolts data are analyzed by market participants and those responsible for the Federal Reserve monetary policy (FED) because they can provide valuable information about the dynamics of supply and demand in the labor market, a key factor that impacts wages and inflation. Employment offers have been constantly decreasing since they reached 12 million in March 2022, indicating constant cooling in labor market conditions. In January of this year, the number of job offers was exceeding 7.7 million before falling to 7.2 million in March. Since then, Jolts employment offers increased for two consecutive months, reaching 7.76 million in May.
What to expect in the next Jolts report?
Markets expect job offers to decrease to 7.55 million. Although concerns about an economic recession have been relieved after the United States trade agreements (USA) with Japan and the European Union (EU), there is still uncertainty about inflation perspectives. Therefore, those responsible for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED) could reflect on making monetary policy make the labor market conditions worse in a remarkable way.
The Fedwatch of the CME tool shows that the markets do not see the possibilities of a rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting on July 29-30. However, a significant negative surprise in Jolts employment offers data, with a reading below 7 million, could feed the expectations of a 25 basic points cut in September, which currently has a probability of around 60%. In this scenario, the US dollar (USD) could be under pressure with the immediate reaction.
On the other hand, a reading close to the market consensus, or better, could help USD maintain their position. Regardless, investors could choose to stay out before the FED policy ads on Wednesday, without allowing the data to have a lasting impact on the USD assessment.
Economic indicator
Jolts work and labor rotation offers survey
The job and labor offers survey is made by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job offers. Collect data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices of each month.
Read more.
Next publication: Mar Jul 29, 2025 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Dear: 7.55m
Previous: 7,769m
Fountain: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
When will the Jolts report be published and how could it affect the EUR/USD?
Employment offers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, principal analyst of the European session at FXSTERET, shares its technical perspective for the EUR/USD:
“The short -term technical perspective points to an accumulation of bearish momentum in the EUR/USD. The indicator of the Relative Force Index (RSI) in the daily chart fell below 50 and the par broke below the simple mobile average (SMA) of 20 days, currently located in 1,1700.”
“Down, the 50 -day SMA is aligned as the immediate support level in 1,1560 before 1,1450 (fibonacci setback from 23.6% of the bullish trend from February to July) and 1,1335 (100 -day SMA). Looking north of the upward trend). “
Fed – Frequently Questions
The monetary policy of the United States is directed by the Federal Reserve (FED). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve prices stability and promote full employment. Its main tool to achieve these objectives is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise too quickly and inflation exceeds the objective of 2% set by the Federal Reserve, it rises interest rates, increasing the costs of loans throughout the economy. This translates into a strengthening of the US dollar (USD), since it makes the United States a more attractive place for international investors to place their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates to foster indebtedness, which weighs on the green ticket.
The Federal Reserve (FED) celebrates eight meetings per year, in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) evaluates the economic situation and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is made up of twelve officials of the Federal Reserve: the seven members of the Council of Governors, the president of the Bank of the Federal Reserve of New York and four of the eleven presidents of the regional banks of the Reserve, who exercise their positions for a year in a rotary form.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can resort to a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). The QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non -standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the weapon chosen by the Fed during the great financial crisis of 2008. It is that the Fed prints more dollars and uses them to buy high quality bonds of financial institutions. The one usually weakens the US dollar.
The quantitative hardening (QT) is the inverse process to the QE, for which the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvote the capital of the bonds that it has in portfolio that they expire, to buy new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US dollar.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
