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USD/BRL hits August lows ahead of key data from Brazil

  • USD/BRL dropped towards 4.8475 and has already lost more than 2% in September.
  • On Tuesday, markets expect the central bank’s primary surplus to stand at BRL 16.8 billion.
  • The dollar is trading lower, consolidating ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

In Monday’s session, the USD/BRL continued to lose ground and has already recorded a drop of 2.17% in September, falling to its lowest point since mid-August, at 4.8475.

On the BRL side, it is gaining ground as the Brazilian government has undertaken fiscal reforms, which are expected to have a positive impact on the government’s accounts. Budget data will be reported on Tuesday, with the primary surplus expected to have doubled to BRL 16.8 billion from BRL 7.1 billion in March. Additionally, the Real could also gain momentum with Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results and trade data.

On the Dollar side, it is trading lower against its rivals, and its US Dollar Index is consolidating. However, US Treasury yields remain high, cushioning their losses. Looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, markets expect a hawkish pause, with the bank signaling that the tightening cycle is not over yet. Investors will also keep an eye on new macroeconomic forecasts and revised dot charts to further shape their expectations for the upcoming meetings. In this sense, the Fed’s tone will impact the price dynamics of the US dollar and could therefore limit the pair’s decline.

USD/BRL Levels to watch

Technical indicators on the daily chart indicate that USD/BRL sellers are ahead. The downward slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces this negative sentiment, as does the MACD, which shows red bars, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. Furthermore, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), suggesting that the bears are firmly in control of the overall picture.

Support levels: 4.8427, 4.8115, 4.7880.

Resistance Levels: 4.8902 (100-day SMA), 4.9143 (20-day SMA), 4.9450.

USD/BRL Daily Chart


Latest price today 4.8473
Today Daily Change -0.0192
Today’s daily variation -0.39
Today’s daily opening 4.8665
daily SMA20 4.9217
daily SMA50 4.8758
SMA100 daily 4.8929
SMA200 daily 5.0293
Previous daily high 4.8782
Previous daily low 4.8593
Previous weekly high 4.9871
Previous weekly low 4.8593
Previous Monthly High 4.9981
Previous monthly low 4.7239
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 4.8665
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 4,871
Daily Pivot Point S1 4.8578
Daily Pivot Point S2 4.8491
Daily Pivot Point S3 4.8389
Daily Pivot Point R1 4.8767
Daily Pivot Point R2 4.8869
Daily Pivot Point R3 4.8956

Source: Fx Street

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