USD/CAD Price Prediction: Counter-trend rally could be stalling

  • USD/CAD has retreated after bottoming on September 25.
  • The correction that followed now appears to have come to an end and the pair could be vulnerable to a recapitulation.

USD/CAD suddenly reversed course amid a strong downtrend and recovered on September 25. The pair quickly rose from 1.3420 to 1.3539, but now the rebound seems to have stalled after reaching a similar level for the last two consecutive days (blue box on the chart below).

USD/CAD Daily Chart

There is a chance that the pullback has come to an end and since the medium-term trend remains bearish, prices could start to fall again.

A move below 1.3457 (September 26 low) would confirm the resumption of the downtrend, probably at least to the September 25 low of 1.3420. A close below that level would provide bearish confirmation of further declines towards the lows of the range, a zone that starts around 1.3222 and ends at 1.3106.

USD/CAD appears to have formed a large zig-zag pattern known as Measured Movement since peaking on August 5. If so, then it bodes bearishly for the pair, as the downside target for the last wave C of the pattern is at least 1.3326, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A.

Source: Fx Street

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