USD/CHF down due to the weak US data and China’s deceleration that affect the feeling

• The USD/CHF is quoting down, around the minimum of the week, since the fears of recession and the weak Chinese PMIS weigh on the feeling.
• The US GDP contracted in the first quarter, the PCE inflation cooled, and the operators now question the next movement of the Fed in the midst of Trump’s renewed criticism to Powell.
• The technical indicators remain bassists, with the USD/CHF limited by the resistance of the mobile average and downward risks towards 0.8120 and 0.8070.

The USD/CHF is quoting with losses, staying close to its recent minimums after a weak US wave and deteriorated macroeconomic signs of China triggered risk aversion flows in the market. The feeling was already fragile when entering Wednesday, and the publication of a disappointing data of the US GDP intensified the concerns about the health of the US economy. At the same time, the weak PMIS of Manufacturing and Services of China revealed the first clear signs of stress due to the escalation of the commercial war, increasing the fears of global economic deceleration. The US dollar is under pressure in general, struggling to win any impulse despite the end of the month.

In the macroeconomic front, the US GDP contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, a strong reversal of the growth of 2.4% seen in the fourth quarter of 2024 and well below the expectations of the market. The fall reflected a weakening of consumer spending, a decrease in government spending and an increase in commercial deficit. Meanwhile, the underlying PCE inflation stood at 2.3% year -on -year, falling from 2.5% in February, in line with consensus but continuing the cooling trend in price pressures. The income and personal spending surprised modestly upwards, but failed to support the dollar. The renewed attacks of President Trump to the president of the FED, Powell, during a melting in Detroit, added fuel to the uncertainty of the market, since the president said “know more about rates than Powell” and pressed for a more aggressive relief.

Complicating the bearish trend, the Manufacturing PMI of China of April fell dramatically to 49.0, its lowest level since 2023, and the export component dropped to 44.7. The non -manufacturing activity also slowed, with the services and construction rates approaching the tobacconist. This confirmed a severe shock in exports and increased the probability of additional stimulus measures by Beijing. The operators reacted quickly, selling USD on all fronts while demand for traditional safe shelters such as the Swiss Franco was strengthened. Meanwhile, Chinese Gold ETFs saw their greatest exits in 264 sessions, and copper prices collapsed as CTA liquidations intensified in a scarce liquidity before the holidays in Asia.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF

From a technical perspective, Momentum’s signals are clearly bassist for the USD/CHF. The relative force index (RSI) is below 40, confirming a weakening of the bullish momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting a continuous sales pressure. The pair is quoting below its EMAS of 10 and 20 days, reinforcing the downward trend. A strong resistance is observed about 0.8280 and 0.8340, while the immediate support is around 0.8120, with a deeper movement that points to 0.8070 and potentially 0.8000 in a bass -continuation scenario.

The markets now focus their attention on the non -agricultural payroll report on Friday, which will offer new perspectives on the strength of the US labor market and shall shape the expectations for the FED policy decision of May 7. Until then, the feeling is still fragile and against the US dollar.

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