USD/CHF: The dollar moves down while the SNB fees are increased and the FOMC is approaching

• The USD/CHF is quoted in a quiet session while the feeling of the dollar deteriorates before the FOMC and amid the spill pressure induced by the TWD in the Asian currencies.
• The US economic data remains firm, but the soft inflation of Switzerland and SNB dovish bias are increasing market expectations on negative rates.
• The technicians point to a continuation of the decline for the USD/CHF, with support seen below 0.9050 and trend signs bowing down.

The USD/CHF is under pressure on Tuesday, with the torque sliding down in the middle of the continuous weakness of the US dollar. The torque is being negotiated in the lower band of its recent rank while the global markets weigh the implications of the extraordinary movement of Monday’s Taiwanese dollar and their possible infection in Asian currencies. Although the TWD cut some profits after the intervention of the Central Bank, concerns about broader changes in currencies continue to drive a cautious positioning.

The US dollar index (DXY) is negotiating about 99.74, heading towards the second consecutive day of losses. The markets are waiting for the result of the two -day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, which began today. No changes in rates are expected, and updated forecasts will be published until the June 17-18 meeting. However, the tone of the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will be examined closely while the markets seek guidance on the moment and magnitude of possible rate cuts. Recent data – particularly the PMI of April services in 51.6 and the solid non -agricultural payrolls in 177,000 – suggest that the Fed can afford to be expected, although the perspectives of the GDP of the second quarter remain mixed, with models that show a growth between 1.1% and 2.3%.

In Switzerland, the Franco continues to attract demand for sure refuge, but its strong performance and a flat inflation fact in April are complicating the position of the Swiss National Bank. The Swiss CPI remained unranually changes, with the underlying inflation falling to 0.6% from 0.9%. This has fed speculations that the SNB could make a new rate cut at its June 19 meeting, potentially pushing policy again to negative territory. The rates implicit in the market now reflect around 40 basic states of relief in the next quarter. SNB is still concerned about deflation risks and has maintained intervention in the currency market as a policy option.

Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are also reinforcing the demand for safe shelters. The new Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, failed to ensure a parliamentary majority in the first voting round, and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza continue to raise risk aversion flows.

Technical analysis

Technically, the USD/CHF is still under sale. Although a complete technical breakdown was not provided in this entry, the prevailing trends show that the torque is biased down, with the area of ​​0.9100–0.9050 acting as a key support band. If this range is broken, the next potential level to be observed is 0.9000. Upwards, resistance is expected about 0.9150 and 0.9185, aligned with recent consolidation peaks. The impulse indicators are mostly bearish, with tendency signs suggesting greater weakness unless the FOMC triggers a change in the feeling of the dollar.

With the betting of SNB cuts in the increasing SNB and the unlikely Fed of offering a hard line surprise, the lowest resistance path for the USD/CHF seems to be down in the short term.

Daily graph