USD: Don’t fight the trend – ING

US equity markets continue to advance. A narrative is emerging that unlike 2016, when Donald Trump was unprepared for office, this time he plans to hit the ground running in January. To some extent, that supports the extension of Trump’s operations at this time and tends to mitigate the investment thesis that his administration will take a year to implement any major initiative, as was the case in 2017, says Chris Turner, an analyst at ING FX.

New USD bullish trend is on the rise

“What we have seen so far this week are early signs of active engagement in a new dollar uptrend. Traded volatility levels are increasing markedly as it appears the market is either actively positioning (investors) or hedging risks ( corporate treasurers) in expectation of a stronger dollar. All we would say here is not to fight this emerging trend.

“Today we will look at the October update to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. It is expected to stay off the lows from earlier in the year and could presumably rise in the coming months with the Republican victory and what it means for taxes “And at 1600CET we have a speech from Christopher Waller of the Fed.”

“Presumably, he will follow Chairman Jerome Powell’s lead from last week and not get carried away by questions about how the Fed will react to Trump’s proposed agenda. The DXY has some resistance here at 105.70, but year highs near 106.50 are very much in focus.”

Source: Fx Street

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