USD: Ignored tariffs, payroll attention – ing

USA has revealed new tariffs that will take effect on August 7. The base rate for most countries has remained at 10%, but other commercial partners (such as Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand) are affected by tariffs of up to 41%. The markets continue to deal with this with some distrust, probably with the opinion that agreements are still appropriate in the coming weeks. We do not expect significant implications for the dollar in the short term, says the FX analyst of ING, Francesco Pesole.

The currency market is fundamentally driven by data at this time

“A summary of US USA data. The underlying PCE deflator increased 0.3% month by month according to the consensus (0.26% rounded), without still showing a particularly worrying increase. Personal income and expenses increased 0.3% nominally, with an increase in real expense of 0.1%. The employment cost index, a wide measure of labor costs, 0.9% quarter to quarter, slightly above 0.8% forecast, leaving private salary growth by 3.5% year -on -year, consisting of 2% inflation over time.

“In general, no fact was particularly relevant to the market, nor firmly argued in favor of another downward movement in the dollar. The DXY rose mainly after the sale of the Yen after the Bank of Japan, but the dollar had a mixed behavior against G10. In our opinion, the reevaluation of the growth after the EU-EE.U agreement. And the hard line position of the Federal Reserve is unlike Currencies is fundamentally driven by data at this time. “

“Today’s employment data have the best opportunity for the USD to make an additional leap before a calm prior to the IPC (August 12) leaves the dollar exposed to a medium -term bassist repositioning. The payroll consensus is 104K, the susurred number is 120K, and our estimate is 115K. The president of the Fed, Jay Powell, has put more emphasis on the unemployment rate, which It is expected that it will increase marginally from 4.1% to 4.2% – hardly sufficient to sound the alarm in the labor market.

Source: Fx Street

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