USD / JPY still risks falling further, but a move to the 103.18 level looks unlikely on the short-term horizon., in the opinion of UOB Group currency strategists.
Key Comments:
24 hour view: “Last Friday, we held the view that USD / JPY ‘could fall to 103.60 first before a more sustained rally can be expected.’ Our expectation did not materialize as USD / JPY practically did not move between 103.69 and 103.90. The underlying tone has firmed up a bit and there is room for the pair to move higher, but any advance points to a higher trading range between 103.60 / 104.05 (no sustained rise above 104.05 expected) ” .
Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update last Thursday (Nov 19, USD / JPY at 103.90). As highlighted, ‘although the underlying tone still looks soft, the outlook for USD / JPY to move to 103.18 is not high.’ Since then the pair has not done much as it has moved very little over the past few days. We continue to hold the same opinion for now and only a breakout of 104.50 (no change at the ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the current slight downward pressure has subsided. “
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