Categories: Markets

USD/JPY Analysis: Turns lower, breaks below the 200 one-hour EMA

USD/JPY Analysis: Turns lower, breaks below the 200 one-hour EMA
  • USD/JPY falls on a boost in risk appetite as equities rise amid falling dollar and US bond yields.
  • If USD/JPY breaks above 144.00, the pair could drop to 143.00.
  • Although the RSI is in an oversold condition, the breakout of the 200 EMA on the hourly chart changed the bias to the downside.

USD/JPY is off, falling for the second day in a row, as global stocks extended their rally, following actions by some central banks, such as the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), who took a “moderate” stance. Therefore, speculation that the Fed might follow suit sent US bond yields and the dollar plummeting. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 144.07, far from 144.00, down 0.32%.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical Outlook

From a technical analysis point of view, the USD/JPY still has a bullish bias, although it is approaching the 20-day EMA at 143.76. To the upside is resistance around 144.00, followed by Monday’s high at 144.93, the BoJ sand line at 145.00.

For major swings to be neutral, USD/JPY would need to drop below the 22nd Sep low of 140.34. Once broken, the next support would be the 50 day EMA at 139.11.

The USD/JPY one hour scale shows that the major pairs fell below 144.67, Tuesday’s daily pivot, and the confluence of the 20, 50 and 100 EMAs, opening the door for further losses. Also, as USD/JPY heads south, it broke above the 200 EMA at 144.19, turning the short-term downtrend. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in an oversold condition, a drop towards the S2 pivot point at 143.49, before a test of the 143.00 figure.

Key USD/JPY Technical Levels


last price today 144.06
Today I change daily -0.47
Today Daily variation % -0.33
Daily opening today 144.53
daily SMA20 143.71
daily SMA50 139
daily SMA100 136.35
daily SMA200 128.12
Previous daily high 145.32
Previous Daily Low 144.16
Previous Weekly High 144.9
Previous Weekly Low 143.25
Previous Monthly High 145.9
Previous Monthly Low 138.78
Daily Fibonacci of 38.2% 144.6
Daily Fibonacci of 61.8% 144.88
Daily Pivot Point S1 144.02
Daily Pivot Point S2 143.5
Daily Pivot Point S3 142.85
Daily Pivot Point R1 145.18
Daily Pivot Point R2 145.84
Daily Pivot Point R3 146.35

Source: Fx Street