USD / JPY at risk of probable test of 108.75 – UOB

A drop to the level of 108.75 and even to 108.50 seems likely if the USD / JPY closes below 109.05 in the next few weeks, as suggested by FX strategists in UOB Group.

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24-hour perspective: “The sharp drop in USD to 109.17 was a surprise (we expected the USD to trade within a 109.45 / 109.85 range). Further USD weakness would not be surprising, but the USD may not be able to sustain a break point. Support below main support at 109.05. Next support at 108.75 is not expected to enter the picture. The resistance is at 109.45, but only a break of 109.60 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized. “

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected the USD to trade within a range of 109.20 / 110.60 since last Wednesday (Jul 28, pair at 109.85). Yesterday (Aug 2), we highlighted that the short-term downside momentum had improved a bit, but the dollar had to close below 109.05 before a sustained decline could be expected. Subsequently, the dollar fell to 109.17 before closing at 109.28 (-0.38%). The downside momentum has improved further and a daily close below 109.05 would indicate that the USD could drop to 108.75, possibly 108.50. The downside risk is considered intact as long as the USD does not move above 109.80 in these few days. “

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