- The USD/JPY pair traded below 128.00 for the first time since June 2022.
- The USD/JPY pair is preparing for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
- USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish Bias; it could test 125.00 in the short term.
The pair USD/JPY it rallied after hitting an eight-month low around 127.21, recapturing 128.00 and rising strongly towards 128.40 in illiquid American session. The absence of economic events in the US due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Jr. day keeps traders watching what the US/Japan calendar brings. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading at 128.55.
US dollar remains higher, a tailwind for USD/JPY
US stock futures continue to trade at a loss and with low volumes. However, with Q4 earnings cruising the news, stocks could continue to lead global investor sentiment. Anticipation for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision on Wednesday continues to rise after its YCC tightening at its December meeting, which widened the band for 2017 bonds. Japanese Governments (JGB) 10 years from 0.25% to around 0.50%. The BOJ is the only central bank that has not raised rates, although it is likely to tighten further in the coming months.
Deutsche Bank (DB) analysts expect the BoJ to continue its easing stance, but believe the Outlook Report will update the bank’s inflation forecast to 2% for 2022-2024. Furthermore, the abandonment of the YCC is expected at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
One day after the BOJ decision, the Japanese economic calendar will include the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), with core CPI (excluding food) estimated at 3.9% yoy vs. 3.7% in November, and excluding food and energy is forecast at 3.1%.
On the other hand, the US economic calendar will include the US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, along with statements from the Fed and the Beige Book, as the US Central Bank prepares for the first monetary policy of the year. Retail Sales and IPP will be released on Wednesday, while Unemployment Initial Claims and housing data will be released on Thursday.
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical Perspective
Despite the ongoing correction, the USD/JPY daily chart shows the pair’s bearish bias, which threatens to erase the gains of last Friday. As long as exchange rates remain below 132.87, the last USD/JPY high, USD/JPY should be ready to test the May 24 swing low at 126.36, followed by the 125.00 figure, before the pivot low of March 31 at 121.28.
USD/JPY
Overview | |
---|---|
Last price today | 128.56 |
daily change today | 0.67 |
today’s daily variation | 0.52 |
today’s daily opening | 127.89 |
Trends | |
---|---|
daily SMA20 | 132.25 |
daily SMA50 | 136.3 |
daily SMA100 | 140.63 |
daily SMA200 | 136.64 |
levels | |
---|---|
previous daily high | 129.43 |
previous daily low | 127.46 |
Previous Weekly High | 132.87 |
previous weekly low | 127.46 |
Previous Monthly High | 138.18 |
Previous monthly minimum | 130.57 |
Fibonacci daily 38.2 | 128.21 |
Fibonacci 61.8% daily | 128.68 |
Daily Pivot Point S1 | 127.09 |
Daily Pivot Point S2 | 126.29 |
Daily Pivot Point S3 | 125.12 |
Daily Pivot Point R1 | 129.06 |
Daily Pivot Point R2 | 130.23 |
Daily Pivot Point R3 | 131.03 |
Source: Fx Street

I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.