UOB Group currency strategists expect that USD / JPY Faces Tough Hurdle at 104.75 Level in Coming Weeks.
Key Comments:
24 hour view: “The sudden strong rise in the USD was a surprise. While the rapid rise appears to be ahead of itself, USD / JPY could move above the monthly high near 104.40. For today, a rise above 104.75 is unlikely. Support is at 104.00 followed by 103.75 “.
Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the same opinion since last Thursday (Jan 21, USD / JPY at 103.55) in which ‘the bias for USD / JPY is tilting lower, but any weakness is probably limited to a test of 103.00 “We highlighted that” a breakout of 104.20 would indicate that the current slight downward pressure has subsided. “We anticipate the sudden rise in USD / JPY yesterday as it spiked to 104.19 before extending its advance this morning. Improvement in momentum has shifted risk to the upside towards 104.75. This is quite solid resistance and may not give way as easily. The current positive outlook is considered intact as long as USD / JPY does not move below 103.50. As a note in the short term, 103.75 is already a strong level. “
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