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USD/JPY Price Analysis: Clings to Gains Around 131.50, 200 SMA Key for Bulls

  • USD/JPY gains strong positive traction on Monday and recovers further from a multi-week high.
  • A combination of factors weigh on the yen and continue to support momentum.
  • The less dovish outlook from the Fed keeps USD bulls on the back foot and could cap further gains.

The pair USD/JPY is supported by the good rebound on Friday from the 129.65 zone, or its lowest level since February 3 and begins the new week with a positive tone. The pair reached a new daily high around 131.75 in the last hour.

Risk-off momentum weakens the Japanese yen (JPY), which continues to be weighed down by the widening US-Japan rate differential amid a strong recovery in US Treasury yields. That being said, the Federal Reserve was less hawkish and did not help the US dollar (USD) to capitalize on its recent recovery from a multi-week low, which could dampen USD/JPY gains, at least for now.

The intraday move higher, meanwhile, pushes spot prices past the 100 hourly simple moving average (SMA), though it lacks follow-through beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent drop from the high. monthly. On the other hand, oscillators on the daily chart – although they have rallied from lower levels – are still far from positive territory and warrant some caution before placing bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Therefore, any further move higher is more likely to be met with stiff resistance around the 200 hourly SMA, currently set just before the round 132.00 level. However, some follow-through buying could spark a short recovery and push the USD/JPY pair towards the 132.80-132.85 zone, which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This zone is followed by near 133.00, which if broken above will suggest that the pair has bottomed out in the short term.

On the other hand, an intraday pullback seems to find good support near 131.00. This zone would act as a support point, which if broken decisively could accelerate the decline towards the intermediate support of 130.55-130.50. The USD/JPY pair could fall further towards the key psychological 130.00 level before falling back to the multi-week low around the 129.65 area touched on Friday.

USD/JPY 1 hour chart


Key levels to watch


Last price today 131.49
Today Change Daily 0.77
today’s daily variation 0.59
today’s daily opening 130.72
daily SMA20 134.28
daily SMA50 132.6
daily SMA100 134.45
daily SMA200 137.41
previous daily high 130.94
previous daily low 129.64
Previous Weekly High 133
previous weekly low 129.64
Previous Monthly High 136.92
Previous monthly minimum 128.08
Fibonacci daily 38.2 130.14
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 130.45
Daily Pivot Point S1 129.92
Daily Pivot Point S2 129.13
Daily Pivot Point S3 128.62
Daily Pivot Point R1 131.23
Daily Pivot Point R2 131.74
Daily Pivot Point R3 132.53

Source: Fx Street

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