USD/JPY Price Analysis: Intraday recovery stalls near 61.8% 100 Fibonacci/SMA level

  • USD/JPY bounces back quickly from almost two-week low reached this Monday.
  • The resurgence of the demand for dollars and the divergence between the policies of the Fed and the BOJ have given a strong impetus.
  • The bulls are now looking for sustained strength beyond the 149.55-149.60 confluence.

The USD/JPY pair attracts aggressive buying near the 145.45 area on Monday and recovers more than 400 points from a two-week low hit earlier this Monday. The pair maintains its offered tone throughout the American session and is currently hovering around the 149.15-149.20 area.

The initial market reaction to an alleged intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fades fairly quickly amid the resurgence in demand for US dollars. Furthermore, the risk appetite drive – as evidenced by the generally positive tone around equity markets – undermines the JPY’s safe haven and offers support to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the decline in US Treasury yields prevents further gains, although the wide divergence in the policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan and other major central banks favors the bulls.

From a technical point of view, the strong intraday rally stops at the confluence barrier of 149.50-149.55. Said zone comprises the 100 hourly SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the USD/JPY pair’s sharp retracement from the 152.00 area, or the August 1990 high touched last Friday. This should act as a pivot point, which if decisively breached should lift spot prices to the psychological 150.00 level on the way to the next relevant hurdle near the 150.55-150.60 area.

On the other hand, weakness below the 149.00 signal appears to find good support near the 50% Fibonacci level, around the 148.70 area. Any further decline could attract new buyers near the 148.30-148.25 area, which would help cap the drop near the 38.2% Fibonacci level around 148.00. A convincing break below the latter will negate any short-term positive bias and make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to retest 147.00, or the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY 1 hour chart

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Key levels to watch

USD/JPY

Overview
last price today 149.16
Today I change daily 1.41
Today’s daily variation in % 0.95
Daily opening today 147.75
Trends
daily SMA20 146.35
daily SMA50 142.64
daily SMA100 138.98
daily SMA200 130.35
levels
Previous daily high 151.94
Previous Daily Low 146.19
Previous Weekly High 151.94
Previous Weekly Low 146.19
Previous Monthly High 145.9
Previous Monthly Low 138.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 148.39
Daily Fibonacci of 61.8% 149.75
Daily Pivot Point S1 145.31
Daily Pivot Point S2 142.88
Daily Pivot Point S3 139.56
Daily Pivot Point R1 151.07
Daily Pivot Point R2 154.38
Daily Pivot Point R3 156.82

Source: Fx Street

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