USD/JPY rebounds as the caution of the BOJ and US data boost a maximum of two weeks

• The USD/JPY is negotiating with strong profits about 146.00 while Yen weakens drastically after the Boj’s moderate policy guide.
• The unemployment applications in the US were shot at 241,000 while the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, reinforcing the expectations of feat cuts by the Fed later this year.
• The technical perspectives remain short -term bullies, with the torque testing about 146.64 and support seen around 145.04.

The USD/JPY is negotiating with a remarkable strength, climbing to the upper end of its recent rank while the Japanese Yen continues to surrender after the last policy meeting of the Bank of Japan. The torque has risen 1.76% in the day and approaches the 146.00 zone, driven by a new divergence between the monetary policy of the US and Japan and new signs of weakness in the US labor market.

The BOJ maintained interest rates without changes at 0.50% and degraded its GDP and inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year and the following, citing high external risks and internal uncertainty. The governor of the Boj, Kazuo Ueda, adopted a cautious tone during his press conference, highlighting that the impulse of inflation could stagnate and that the perspective lacks the necessary confidence for more rates of rates. The Central Bank now expects GDP growth of only 0.5% for fiscal year 2025, below 1.1%, and also reduced its inflation prognosis. The markets interpreted this position as moderate, delaying expectations for the next climb until the end of 2025 as very soon.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remained firm in front of most of its peers after mixed data. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48.7 in April, from 49.0, but even better than the expectations of 48. Employment conditions in the manufacturing sector improved modestly, with the subscript by rising to 46.5, while the paid price index rose to 69.8, showing sustained cost pressures. In addition, initial unemployment applications increased to 241,000, above the figure of the previous week and market expectations, indicating a weakened labor market. These figures added to the opinion that the Fed may need to answer soon with feat cuts to support growth.

Political and commercial uncertainty also added a caution layer to the feeling of the market. The former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, warned about the adverse economic impact of Trump’s new rates, while reports suggest that the US could be looking to be re -deceived with China and Japan in commercial terms. The USD is still widely supported for now, helped by the increase in the yields of the US Treasury bonds and the solid technological results that drive the feeling in the sharing market.

Technical analysis

From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY is showing a bullish signal, currently negotiating around 146.00 and near the upper end of its daily rank from 142.87 to 145.65. The MACD is giving a clear purchase signal, aligning with the 10 -day EMA bullish support in 143.35 and the 10 -day SMA in 142.71. The RSI is located at 52.88, indicating space for more increases, while the ADX in 34.02 reinforces the upward trend. The percentage range of Williams in -1.46 is neutral, and the 20 -day SMA in 143.70 continues to support the upward trend. However, the 100 -day and 200 -day SMS in 151.01 and 149.83 respectively suggest that long -term resistance remains significant.

The key support levels are found in 145.55, 145.04 and 144.65. On the positive side, the resistance is found in 145.67, 146.64 and 146.95. A sustained rupture above 146.64 could open the door towards the test of the 148.00 zone in the next sessions, particularly if the non -agricultural payrolls of Friday confirm a greater weakness in the labor market and intensify the cuts of clippings of the Fed. Until then, the short -term inclination remains biased to the rings.

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