USD/MXN advances towards 18.3000 due to risk aversion amid the Middle East conflict

  • USD/MXN continues winning streak as negative sentiment over the war between Israel and Hamas worsens.
  • The deputy governor of Banxico, Omar Mejía, has stated that the balance of inflation risks has not worsened.
  • US building permits exceeded expectations and home construction starts rebounded in September.

USD/MXN extends winning streak for the third consecutive session, trading higher around 18.2990 at the start of the European session on Thursday. The pair gains ground due to risk aversion amid the escalating military situation between Israel and Hamas.

The visit of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, to Israel has so far failed to calm the conflict. The recent explosion at a Gaza hospital, blamed on Israel, has increased tensions, with Iran considering imposing an oil embargo on Israel and stepping up its rhetoric against the country.

The deputy governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Omar Mejía, has stated that the balance of inflation risks has not worsened and has highlighted that the current restrictive monetary policy is successfully managing inflation. Mejía expects that he will align with Banxico’s objective for the second quarter of 2025.

The DXY Dollar Index recovers, influenced by both US economic data and the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The DXY index is hovering around the 106.60 level at the time of writing. However, dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials suggest a cautious stance, reluctant to tighten monetary policy in the current economic scenario.

The US housing market is sending mixed signals: September building permits exceeded expectations and housing starts rebounded, although slightly below market consensus, adding complexity to the picture.

September building permits stood at 1.47 million, above the 1.45 million expected. On the other hand, housing starts rebounded to 1.35 million, just below the market consensus of 1.38 million.

Data on existing home sales, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and weekly jobless claims will be released on Thursday. Additionally, traders will closely monitor Mexico’s retail sales for August, which will be released on Friday, for possible short-term opportunities around the USD/MXN pair.

USD/MXN technical levels to highlight

Overview
Latest price today 18.2931
Today Daily Change 0.0449
Today’s daily variation 0.25
Today’s daily opening 18.2482
Trends
daily SMA20 17.8178
daily SMA50 17.3855
SMA100 daily 17.2305
SMA200 daily 17.7553
Levels
Previous daily high 18.3083
Previous daily low 17.9629
Previous weekly high 18.4216
Previous weekly low 17.7545
Previous Monthly High 17.8174
Previous monthly low 16.9727
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 18.1764
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 18.0948
Daily Pivot Point S1 18.0379
Daily Pivot Point S2 17.8277
Daily Pivot Point S3 17.6925
Daily Pivot Point R1 18.3833
Daily Pivot Point R2 18.5185
Daily Pivot Point R3 18.7288

Source: Fx Street

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