USD / MXN marks new lows since March and is approaching 20.50

• Mexican peso maintains an upward trend against the dollar.
• US elections: Biden very close to victory, expectation of whether Trump will admit defeat.

The USD / MXN fell to 20.57, hitting a new low since March, but then rebounded to 20.70. The volatility increased in the last hours before the advance of the counting of votes in the USA The tendency already seems impossible to break in favor of the democratic candidate, Joe Biden.

The US employment data showed a positive surprise with the drop in the unemployment rate, but this did not have a major impact on the market. Attention remains on the outcome of the elections.

Biden came to the fore in the state of Pennsylvania, which if confirmed with that alone would already exceed 270 electoral votes, without important what happens in the rest of the states where there is still no result. The question is whether this will make President Trump admit defeat, opening the way for transition.

The USD / MXN trades without significant changes on Friday, with a dollar with mixed results, even within the emerging group. The actions in Wall Street operate in negative territory, after several days with rises.

An emerging risk for the Mexican peso is that on Wall Street, once the news is confirmed, there will be a downward correction, which will strengthen the dollar and hit emerging market currencies.

On the weekly chart, USD / MXN is seen heading to the lowest close since March and starting to target the 20.50 area. The next natural support is the 20.00 area, which would contain the losses in the first attempt, favoring some kind of rebound. The bearish bias is expected to remain intact, unless there is a weekly close above 21.50.