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USD/MXN near 18.10 awaiting Banxico and the US PCE index.

  • USD/MXN is defending its crucial support at 18.00 amid a USD rally.
  • US consumer spending will take a hit this year amid recession fears and banking jitters.
  • A rate hike of 25 basis points is expected by Banxico to 11.25%.

He USD/MXN moves slightly down just below the 18.10 level, at the start of the European session on Thursday. The pair is defending the psychological support at 18.00 amid a recovery move in the DXY Dollar Index. The dollar remains close to the previous day’s high at around 102.77. The mighty USD is gaining strength to break above that level for the hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates once more this year.

S&P 500 futures have recovered losses from the Asian session, reflecting a further improvement in risk appetite of market participants. The receding fears of further declines in the US banking system have weighed on demand for government bonds. Finally, the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 3.58%.

Looking to the future, the publication of data from the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will continue to be the center of attention, scheduled for Friday. According to the consensus, household spending rose 0.4% in February, down from the previous rise of 0.6%. The annual core PCE price index is expected to remains stable at 4.7%.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) stated on Wednesday that recession fears and bank tremors cloud recovery in consumer spending, as reported by Reuters. The NRF expects retail demand growth in the range of 4-6%, less than the 7% expansion recorded in 2022. Therefore, the chances of a better-than-expected underlying PCE are less likely.

As for the Mexican peso, investors are awaiting the decision on the interest rate of Banco de México (Banxico). According to the consensus, Banxico will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) to 11.25%.

USD/MXN technical levels


Last Price Today 18.0948
Today’s Daily Change 0.0039
Today’s Daily Change % 0.02
Today’s Daily Open 18.0909
20 Daily SMA 18.4423
SMA of 50 Daily 18.5658
SMA of 100 Daily 18,978
SMA of 200 Daily 19.5507
Previous Daily High 18.2423
Minimum Previous Daily 18.0681
Previous Weekly High 19.2324
Previous Weekly Minimum 18.3797
Maximum Prior Monthly 19.2901
Minimum Prior Monthly 18.2954
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 18.1346
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 18.1757
Daily Pivot Point S1 18.0253
Daily Pivot Point S2 17.9596
Daily Pivot Point S3 17.8511
Daily Pivot Point R1 18.1994
Daily Pivot Point R2 18.3079
Daily Pivot Point R3 18.3735

Source: Fx Street

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