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USD/MXN Price Analysis: Struggling near two-week low, looks vulnerable below 61.8% Fibonacci

  • USD/MXN declines for the seventh consecutive day and hits two-week lows on Monday.
  • Acceptance below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and negative oscillators support prospects for further decline.
  • A sustained move above the 17.20-17.25 confluence hurdle is needed to negate the bearish outlook.

The USD/MXN pair remains under pressure for the seventh consecutive day and slides to more than two-week lows, around the 17.00 level on Monday.

From a technical perspective, the acceptance below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recovery from the August monthly low could have already set the stage for a further depreciating move in the pair. The negative outlook is reinforced by the fact that the oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting into bearish territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/MXN pair is to the downside.

That said, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing break below the 50-day SMA, currently around the 17.0270 area, before opening new bearish positions. USD/MXN could then weaken further below the psychological level of 17.0000, to test the next relevant support near the 16.8885 area before falling to the multi-year low, near the 16.6945 region touched in August.

On the opposite side, any significant recovery could now face stiff resistance and is more likely to remain capped near the 17.2060-17.2280 confluence, which comprises the 50% Fibonacci and 100-day SMA. However, some follow-through buying should lift USD/MXN to the 38.2% Fibonacci area, around the 17.3300 region, en route to the 23.6% Fibonacci area near the 17.4775 area and multi-month high, in around the 17.7090-17.7095 area.

USD/MXN daily chart


USD/MXN additional technical levels


Today’s Latest Price 17,044
Today’s Daily Change -0.0342
Today’s Daily Change % -0.20
Today’s Daily Opening 17.0782
20 Daily SMA 17.0986
SMA of 50 Daily 17,015
SMA of 100 Daily 17.2333
SMA of 200 Daily 17.9561
Previous Daily High 17.1269
Previous Daily Low 17.0504
Previous Weekly High 17.5959
Previous Weekly Low 17.0504
Previous Monthly High 17.4274
Previous Monthly Low 16.6945
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 17.0796
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 17.0977
Daily Pivot Point S1 17.0434
Daily Pivot Point S2 17.0087
Daily Pivot Point S3 16.9669
Daily Pivot Point R1 17.1199
Daily Pivot Point R2 17.1617
Daily Pivot Point R3 17.1964

Source: Fx Street

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