The USD/MXN not only did it break below 20, but it also gave way at 19.70, opening a move lower to 19.50 in quick succession. Nevertheless, Rabobank economists expect a move back above 20 similarly over the next month
Tough but risky
“We expect USD/MXN to break above the 20 level again before the end of June, but the current technical picture suggests it could come after a test of 19. That said, we expect USD/MXN’s move higher to come quickly when it occurs. Therefore, we prefer to enter long USD/MXN positions gradually, with larger positions the closer the pair gets to 19″.
“We see an implied probability of USD/MXN reaching 16.50 by the end of 2022 of just 3%, while the equivalent move higher to 22.5 has around a 24% implied probability of occurring.”
Source: Fx Street
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