Analysts at Danske Bank they predict that the USD/RUB It will trade at 72.00 in one month, 72.00 in three months, 71.00 in six months and 70.00 in twelve months. They argue that the risks to the Russian ruble shifted from geopolitics to a strengthening of the US dollar.
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“RUB has faced a series of headwinds since mid-2020: inflation has risen, oil prices have been low, and amid lockdowns, activity has remained weak. For its part, the improvement in activity indicators has been slow. Russian policy has also been negative on RUB, although sanctions have been lighter than expected. Relations with Ukraine, the US and Europe have also been a headwind for FX. However, in recent months, the central bank has become increasingly aggressive and raised interest rates, economic activity has recovered, and geopolitical risks have faded. RUB has strengthened on this fundamental reversal. The EUR / RUB is also down. “
“We are keeping our positive RUB forecast practically unchanged. For RUB, it appears that the key risk has shifted away from geopolitics vis-à-vis Ukraine and, furthermore, towards a further (large) strengthening of the broad dollar. “
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