USD: The dollar could have fallen enough for the moment – Ing

The currency markets are beginning to stabilize after a transcendental week. While the events in Europe were really the dominant factor, we would not have seen such large movements in the EUR/USD if it were not for the collapse of short -term rates in the US, says Chris Turner, an Ing currency analyst.

The DXY could return to 104.30/50

“The financial markets have discounted the terminal rate of the Fed approximately 50PB lower in just over a month. That can be sufficient at the moment, except for a surprising decrease in the data of employment offers Jolts of the US Recent in a speech on Friday. “

“A conclusion was his comment that the feeling readings were not good predictors of the growth of consumption, which suggests that it can be too early to predict the disappearance of the US consumer. This week the data of the February IPC will also be published on Wednesday on Wednesday, where the underlying rate is expected to remain persistent at 0.3% intermennsual. All this supports Powell’s conclusion on Friday that Fed does not need to be Cutting rates and could throw some cold water on the value of the 27pb market for a rate cut in June. “

“In addition, remember that the US has now changed at the time of summer, reducing the time difference until the watches are forward in Europe on March 30. Apart from the US data this week, the attention will focus on the peace conversations in Ukraine in Saudi Arabia and the global commercial war. The DXY could probably benefit from some consolidation after a tumultuous week Seller in 104.30/50 provided that the European perspective continues to be positively reevaluated. “

Source: Fx Street

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