USD: The tariff threat keeps the heavy dollar – ing

The dollar earnings, driven by a stronger American employment report, were ephemeral. While it can be argued that the data perhaps were not as solid as the owners suggest, the US bond market saw it as a good number and the US yields are 10-12 higher basic points throughout the curve, says Chris Turner, FX analyst of ING.

The DXY will be negotiated well within the range of 96.35-97.45 of this week

“Normally, this would be associated with a stronger dollar, but today the dollar has barely moved away from the recent minimums. Here it seems that the market is preparing for some more volatility related to tariffs. That can be seen in the temporary structure of the negotiated currency options market, where the Volatility of the EUR/USD remains high during the next three weeks before starting to decrease during the rest of the year.”

“In the focus is the next step of Washington in its tariff war. In theory, if a country has not signed a commercial agreement with the US for July 9, elevated tariff informing them of their new tariff rate.

“As a reminder, the best currency performances of the G10 during the worst of the volatility of April were the Swiss Franco, the euro and the Yen – in that order. The dollar was widely sold. And the action of the currency price yesterday suggests that investors and corporations were more than happy to sell dollars in the rebounds. We can not expect too much of the currency markets today given the public festive on July 4 in the US However, the dollar seems to remain weak until next week.

Source: Fx Street

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