- USD / TRY adds to Monday’s gains and tests 7.80.
- Strong support emerged at the 7.60 area so far (Nov 13/16).
- The consensus expects the CBRT to raise rates by 500 bps.
The Turkish lira has started the week on the left foot and pushes the USD/TRY back to the 7.80 region on Tuesday.
USD / TRY with eyes on CBRT
USD / TRY continues its bullish move on Monday after finding solid containment at the 7.60 zone for the past two sessions. However, the promotion struggles to break above the 7.80 level for now.
Meanwhile, the rally in the lira appears to have come to a halt with growing caution among investors ahead of the crucial CBRT meeting on November 19. On the latter, the consensus among market participants points to at least an interest rate of 500 bp. increase in the one-week repurchase rate.
Investors remain vigilant, however, after recent CBRT data showed locals’ total currency deposits rose to an all-time high of more than $ 224 billion in the week ending Nov. 6, while demand dollars barely slowed down despite the recent lira rally.
Key levels
At the moment, the pair is up 0.57% to 7.7315 and faces the next hurdle at 7.7959 (November 17 high) followed by 7.8230 (55-day SMA) and finally 8.5777 (November 6 all-time high). On the downside, a drop below 7.5985 (Nov 16 monthly low) would expose 7.4822 (100-day SMA) and then 72019 (Aug 21 low).
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