- USD/TRY gains more traction and approaches 18.00.
- Türkiye’s manufacturing PMI stood at 46.90 in July.
- The next thing to highlight on the calendar will be the inflation figures.
the turkish lira starts the week off on the wrong foot and motivates the USD/TRY to resume the rises and trades around 18.00 on Monday.
USD/TRY taking a close look at the data
USD/TRY resumes the uptrend on Monday, always with the 18.00 level as an immediate target for bulls.
The lira remains on the defensive despite the better risk sentiment in the universe, although market participants remain cautious ahead of the release of the Turkish CPI inflation numbers later in the week.
In addition, the radio silence around the Turkish central bank and the lack of details on the progress of the protected fixed-term deposit plan contribute to the prevailing uncertainty and weigh on the TRY.
Earlier on the national calendar, the manufacturing PMI fell back to 46.90 in July (from 48.10).
What to keep in mind around TRY
USD/TRY bullish bias remains unchanged and remains on course to revisit the key 18.00 zone.
Meanwhile, the lira is expected to continue to oscillate around energy price developments, which appear to be directly correlated with developments in the war in Ukraine, general trends in risk appetite and the trajectory of Fed rates in the coming months.
Additional risks facing the Turkish currency also come from within, as inflation shows no signs of abating, real interest rates remain entrenched in negative, and political pressure for the CBRT to go rate Low interest rates remain ubiquitous. In addition, there does not seem to be a plan B to attract foreign exchange in a context in which the country’s foreign exchange reserves are decreasing day by day.
key levels
So far the pair is gaining 0.33% at 17.9427 and faces the immediate target of 17.9519 (29 Jul high) seconded by 18.2582 (20 Dec all-time high) and then 19.00 (round level). On the other hand, a break of 17.1903 (weekly low Jul 15) would pave the way towards 16.9748 (55-day SMA) and eventually 16.0365 (monthly low Jun 27).
Source: Fx Street
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