- USD / TRY extends the march north to levels beyond 8.32.
- Pandemic fears, geopolitics, monetary policy, all against the TRY.
- The bullish momentum of the dollar is also reinforcing the bullish movement.
He USD/TRY it hits another all-time high on Thursday, this time at levels just below 8.33.
USD / TRY weaker due to geopolitics, CBRT decision
The Turkish lira kept the march south well in place for the sixth straight session on Thursday, lifting USD / TRY to around 8.33 against the usual fragile outlook surrounding the currency (to say the least).
The lira exacerbates the decline as market participants remain skeptical that the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will take further steps to defend the currency, all following last week’s huge disappointment after the rate Obe-Week buyback will not change. The consensus among investors points to an emergency interest rate hike (of at least 500 bp?) As the silver bullet in trying to restore some credibility in the bank and the currency.
In addition to these internal issues, geopolitical concerns are also keeping Turkey under the microscope as the country faces a conflict against Greece in the eastern Mediterranean and is in the midst of debate in the ongoing Azeri-Armenian dispute in the Caucasus. .
So far, the lira lost more than 28% against the dollar this year and its current monthly performance is the worst since August 2018.
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.48% at 8.2963 and faces the next hurdle at 8.3260 (all-time high on October 29). On the downside, a drop below 7.7787 (Oct 22 low) would expose 7.6294 (Oct 1 monthly low) and finally 7.5082 (Sept 25 low).
Credits: Forex Street