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USD/TRY looks offered and approaches 13.70

  • USD/TRY accelerates and trades near 13.70.
  • Investors’ attention remains on the geopolitical scene.
  • Turkey’s central government debt stock rose to TRY 2,844.4 trillion.

The Turkish lira adds to Friday’s losses and lifts the USD/TRY to the upper end of the recent range near 13.70 on Monday.

USD/TRY Analyzes Risk Trends

USD/TRY flirts with recent highs near 13.70 despite the renewed stance offered on the dollar and amid the overall bullish mood surrounding the risk space.

Indeed, investors are still watching developments in the Russia-Ukraine-US standoff ahead of the February 24 Blinken-Lavrov meeting in Geneva, while there is still a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic solution. of the conflict.

On the national calendar, foreign arrivals increased by 151.40% in January compared to the same month in 2021, while the central government’s debt stock increased to TRY 2,844.4 trillion during the last month.

What to look for around TRY

The pair is holding its multi-week consolidation theme in place around 13.50 for now. The lira, meanwhile, is surprisingly stable year-to-date, particularly after the government announced a protected lira time deposit scheme in late December and after the CBRT left the policy rate unchanged. changes in the last two meetings. However, the lira is expected to remain under scrutiny amid runaway inflation, negative real interest rates and pervasive political pressure to favor lower interest rates.

Technical levels

So far the pair is up 0.13% at 13.6456 and a drop below 13.4317 (weekly low Feb 11) would expose 13.2327 (monthly low Feb 1) and finally 12.7523 (low Jan 3, 2022). On the other hand, the next upside barrier lines up at 13.6767 (15 Feb weekly high) followed by 13.9319 (10 Jan 2022 high) and then 18.2582 (20 Dec all-time high).

Source: Fx Street

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