- USD / TRY extends the bullish run above 8,000.
- The new head of CBRT said a rate cut should not be taken for granted.
Pressure on the Turkish lira is holding and has pushed USD / TRY to a fresh one-week high at 8.1838. It is trading at 8.1630, up 1% so far this day. The Turkish currency is one of worst performance in the world on Monday.
The statements of the new head ofl Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Sahap Kavcioglu did not relieve the pressure. He stated that a cut in the benchmark interest rate should not be taken for granted at the next meeting. These statements are not enough to change investors’ expectation that the central bank is headed for a much looser policy and higher inflation in Turkey.
Key levels
Resistance looming in USD / TRY appears at 8.2000, above that level will appear 8.2881 (2021 high of March 22) and then 8.5777 (all-time high of November 6, 2020). In the opposite direction, a confirmation below 7.7700 would remove some of the upward pressure, with the next support being at 7.6000 and 7.4576 (200-day moving average).
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