Turkish general elections will be held in the second quarter of 2023. Wells Fargo economists are looking at how the outcome of the presidential election could affect the lira (TRY).
TRY can remain stable if President Erdogan stays in office
“Should President Erdogan remain in office, the Turkish lira is likely to remain at current levels until the end of the election cycle. In the long term, if economic trends and monetary policy frameworks do not change, large depreciations could materialize. TRY spikes, but at a minimum we expect a depreciation of the lira until mid-2024. We believe that USD/TRY can reach 19.50 in Q4 2023 and reach 20.00 by mid-2024.”
“In our regime change scenario, the lira could experience one of the largest rallies in modern history as an independent central bank is restored and an orthodox monetary policy framework is implemented. In this scenario, USD/TRY It can end 2023 around 15:00 and reach 14:00 in mid-2024.”
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
