Venice Festival 2025, who will win the golden lion? Our predictions and favorites for the Volpi Cup

We arrived on the last day of the Venice Festival 2025. In the Darsena Sala Passes – for the press – the closing film, the French dystopian Chien 51but in the Lido in the last hours the true projection is that of hypotheses. The corridors of the Excelsior and the tables of the bar and the press room have become a improvised betting scoreboard: Who will win the golden lion of the 82nd Venice Film Festival? This year, more than in other editions, the Toto-Leone game seems to have a name written on the top: The Voice of Hind Rajab by Kaouther Ben Hania.

The film by the Tunisian director ** ** moved and convinced everyone, unanimously. Twenty -four minutes of applause – the longest of the whole exhibition – flags with the word “Free Palestine” that waved in the large room and a deeply affected audience. With a radical choice, Ben Hania made only the reality spoke: the authentic recordings of the Hind call, six years old, trapped in Gaza among the corpses of her family after an attack by the Israeli army, while the volunteers of the red crescent tried unnecessarily to reach it. It is essential and civil cinema, which is not spectacular but returns voice and body to those who have been deleted. It is not surprising that already yesterday he conquered the golden lion. If the jury wanted to send a net message, the lion would pass from here.

Next to Ben Hania, however, there are other favorites. A House of Dynamite He marks the return of Kathryn Bigelow and brings to the Lido a thriller who reminded everyone how much nuclear threat is still present. Thirteen minutes of standing ovation welcomed a film that does not just report, but builds sensory and political tension with the hand of a director who already presented in Venice The Hurt Locker. But the festival is never taken for granted. Park Chan-Wook takes care of the race with No Other Choiceferocious satire on the despair of workers in a Korea shaken by the technological revolution. The director accompanies his protagonist towards the abyss with an ironic and cruel look that convinced international criticism. Here, in addition to the lion, the Volpi Cup could also arrive for Lee byung-hun (Squid Game) interpretation that has already turned on the predictions.

Among the outsiders, there is Guillermo del Toro with his Gothic Frankensteinimpeccable in staging. Or Ildikó Enyedi with Silent frienda meditative film that focuses on a Ginkgo Biloba tree and questions time through three generations: the most poetic title of the competition, ready to win at least a special prize.

And then there are the Italians. Paolo Sorrentino with Grace has convinced much of international critics and could bring home a recognition, also thanks to the presence of Toni Servillo, Much cited name for the Volpi Cup. Leonardo di Costanzo with Elisa instead entrusts to Barbara Ronchi A role of extraordinary precision, capable of bringing it among the favorites for the best actress award. Pietro Marcello chose Valeria Bruni Tedeschi to give body to Dusean interpretation that many consider one of the most powerful evidence of his career. France relies on François Ozon, that with The étrangger brought Camus in black and white, and to Valérie Donzelli, who in À Pied d’œuvre He chose a more intimate, but perhaps more surprising tone.

But let’s move on to the interpreters. The Volpi Cup chapter is the most uncertain. On the female front, the Italians advance: Valeria Bruni Tedeschi and Barbara Ronchi are the most repeated names at Lido, next to Amanda Seyfriedthat in The Testament of Ann Lee dared a spiritual musical shot in 35 mm, and Emma Stone, disturbing protagonist of Bugonia. Among the men, the name that displaces everyone is that of Dwayne Johnson: with The Smashing Machine by Benny Safdie abandoned the mask of The Rock to interpret a MMA sample struggling with addiction. A role that could be worth the Volpi Cup e relaunch it directly towards the Oscars. Alternatively, The race remains between Lee Byung-Hun and Toni Servillo.

If the predictions are not wrong, the verdict tonight will have a clear direction: A political, civil and perhaps all female palmarès, led by Kaouther Ben Hania and Kathryn Bigelow. We wish us. But in Venice, history teaches, the juries love to surprise.