False: It is false that the first round of the Ipec poll, published in Jornal Nacional on August 15, showed Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with 44% of voting intentions for the presidency of the Republic. The excerpt from the news that cited the data was manipulated and posted on social media. Ipec and TV Globo confirmed that the content is false. The true information is that the survey pointed to the candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead of the dispute, with 44%. Bolsonaro was second, with 32%.
Investigated Content: Video released on TikTok with images from Jornal Nacional, on TV Globo, shows presenter Renata Vasconcellos narrating the result of an electoral poll released by Ipec. In the broadcast, presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro appears in the lead with 44% of voting intentions, while Lula has 32%. The post has been deleted.
where it was published: TikTok
Completion of Proof: President Jair Bolsonaro, candidate for reelection, did not register 44% of voting intentions in the first round of the Ipec poll, an institute created by former Ibope executives, whose results were published in Jornal Nacional on August 15. The survey showed, in fact, the opposite: ex-president Lula in the lead of the dispute, with 44%. Bolsonaro appears next, with 32%.
A video, in which the narration by journalist Renata Vasconcellos and the graph presented in the news were manipulated, shows the percentages of the inverted candidates (Bolsonaro with 44% and Lula with 32%), with the objective of inducing the internet user to believe that Bolsonaro was ahead in the race according to the survey, which is not true.
The content of the publication was also denied in notes sent to Comprova by Ipec and TV Globo.
For Comprova, false is any content invented or edited to change its original meaning and deliberately released to spread a falsehood.
Scope of publication: The verified piece was posted on TikTok, where it had 2.5 million views; 80.5 thousand likes; 3,315 comments and 35,800 shares as of August 29, 2022. After that, it was deleted.
What the author of the publication says: It was not possible to contact the author of the publication, as TikTok only allows the exchange of messages between profiles that follow each other. The team did not find the author’s pages on other social networks.
How do we check: To check the veracity of the content published on TikTok about the electoral survey carried out by Ipec from August 12 to 14, keywords were searched on Google regarding the survey (Ipec, Jair Bolsonaro, Lula, 44%, 32%, survey from August 12 to 14, Jornal Nacional).
Thus, it was possible to find news about the research result in different press vehicles, such as Folha de S. PauloO Power 360O G1 it’s the Estadão. We are still looking for the content broadcast by Jornal Nacional, whose excerpt was published on the official profile of the program on twitterin order to compare it with TikTok.
Comprova also contacted the press offices of Ipec and TV Globo. The two companies claimed that the content is false. The team also tried unsuccessfully to contact the person responsible for posting the video on TikTok.
Finally, the electoral polls gathered by the Poder360 news aggregator, in which there is no survey in the indicated period with results similar to the modified post. The website of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) was also consulted.
Research showed Lula in the lead in the dispute
Data from the first round of the Ipec survey, contracted by Globo, were published by Jornal Nacional on August 15. In the news, presenter Renata Vasconcellos informs that, according to the survey, Lula had 44% of voting intentions. Bolsonaro came in second, with 32%. The research was reflected in media outlets such as Folha de S. Paulo, Power 360, G1 and Estadão. The complete survey can be searched at Ipec website. The entirety can be viewed in this link.
The video verified here had audio and image manipulated and lies when stating that Bolsonaro registered 44% of voting intentions in the first round of the Ipec poll.
At the beginning of the actual video, published by Jornal Nacional on Twitter, Renata says: “Ipec released today the first survey contracted by TV Globo on the intention to vote for the presidential elections. Former President Lula, of the PT, leads the dispute followed by President Jair Bolsonaro, of the PL.” The presenter continues: “Ipec is the institute created by former executives of Ibope Intelligence, which ended its activities. This research comprises the period between party conventions and the deadline for official registration of candidacies, which ended today. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.”
Then, the data are shown in a graph with the narration of Renata: “Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from the PT, appears with 44%. With the margin of error it has 42% to 46%. Jair Bolsonaro, from the PL, has 32%. With the margin of error, it has 30% to 34%.”
The manipulated video begins with the first sentence of the original video: “Ipec released today the first survey contracted by TV Globo on voting intentions for the presidential elections.” Then, the audio and image with alteration were inserted, presenting the wrong information that Bolsonaro registered 44% of the voting intentions. That is, the disinformation piece also omitted the presenter’s speech about Lula’s leadership in the dispute and the details about the methodology and margin of error of the research.
The graph shown in the disinformation piece maintains the ratings of the other candidates. Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 6%; Simone Tebet (MDB), with 2% and Vera Lúcia (PSTU), with 1%, according to the official result of the survey. Another visual change is the addition of a graphic feature that mimics the image of a charged battery overlaying Bolsonaro’s column.
The original Ipec survey, which is referenced in the modified content on TikTok, is registered with the TSE with the number BR-03980/2022. The survey interviewed 2,000 voters, in person, in 130 municipalities of the 27 units of the Federation, from August 12 to 14, 2022. The survey’s margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a confidence interval of 95%. The research in question was contracted by the TV station Rede Globo.
Ipec and Globo confirm that content is fake
In a note, the IPEC press office reported that “the video circulating on social networks and WhatsApp groups in which President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 44% of voting intentions and former President Lula, of the PT, is false. , with 32%, according to data from Ipec and images from Jornal Nacional, from TV Globo”.
In addition, Ipec informed that it is reporting the video to the TSE Elections Misinformation Alert System and to the Electoral Public Ministry (MPE) “so that they adopt the appropriate measures”.
To Comprova, TV Globo also said that the content is false. “The poll, released on the 15th, shows exactly the opposite: former president Lula leads the contest, with 44% of voting intentions, followed by Bolsonaro, with 32%,” said a note sent by the station’s press office. The text also highlights the complaint made by Ipec to the TSE and the MPE.
Another way of verifying election polls for president carried out by Ipec in the period from August 12 to 14, as disclosed in the TikTok video, is the search aggregator of the Poder360 digital newspaper. The platform brings together surveys and studies with numbers of voting intentions for the Presidency of the Republic, state governments and the Senate.
The tool is updated daily by the vehicle’s team of journalists. On the dates indicated, there is no electoral poll, at the national level, in which Bolsonaro appears in first place in the dispute. THE highest percentage indicated per official poll of voting intent for president in the week of the indicated range is 37%. However, the aggregator includes surveys prior to this period in which Bolsonaro took the lead in the surveys, especially before Lula was considered eligible by decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) in April 2021.
TSE makes available a list of registered research
The TSE makes available, on its website, a tab for the consultation of electoral polls registered in Brazil. According to the electoral law, as of January 1, 2022, entities and companies that carry out work involving public opinion polls on voting intentions must register in advance with the Electoral Court. The rule provides that registration must take place up to five days before the publication of each survey.
The registration of the research in the TSE must be accompanied by a series of information, including: who hired the research, amounts spent, source of resources, methodology and period of execution, sampling plan and considerations on gender, age, education level, economic level and physical area of work to be performed; as well as confidence interval and margin of error. Items such as the complete survey questionnaire should also be included in the documentation.
Although it is not possible to see the results of surveys registered on the TSE website, this is an important tool for voters to follow up on surveys that were actually contracted and registered. The information is public and accessible on the organ portalwhich emphasizes not carrying out prior control over the results of research or taking care of their respective disclosures.
The company that carried out the research presents itself as Intelligence in Research and Consulting. Ipec is a for-profit enterprise, like many companies that conduct election polls in Brazil. The enterprise is led by executives linked to the former Ibope Inteligência, which ended its activities on January 24, 2021 after 79 years of operation. The former CEO of Ibope, the statistician Márcia Cavallari, holds the same position today at Ipec.
why do we investigate: Comprova investigates suspicious content that went viral on social media about the covid-19 pandemic, public policies linked to the federal government and the presidential elections. The video verified here leads to a false conclusion, from the tampering of numbers pointed out in a poll of intention to vote.
Polls are often the target of pieces of disinformation, especially with the proximity of elections. Content of this type can influence the decision of Brazilian voters, who will go to the polls on October 2nd to choose president, senators, governors and deputies. Voters must choose their candidates based on true information.
Other checks on the topic: O Facto ou Fake, from G1, published a verification pointing the content as false. The material disclosed has also been denied by other disinformation verification vehicles such as UOL Check, Sheet, Yahoo and Magnifying glass.
Comprova recently verified the case of a senator mocks institute result to discredit election polls is that there are no records that Lula defended a performance in which a child touches a naked man. In March of this year, Comprova also explained that Election polls follow scientific methods, unlike polls.
Investigated by: O Povo, Poder 360, O Popular and SBT; Verified by: Correio Braziliense, Correio, Metrópoles, Uol, Plural Curitiba, CBN Curitiba, Piauí, A Gazeta and CNN Brasil
Source: CNN Brasil