Researchers at the University of Montréal have developed a statistical model that uses blood biomarkers to identify patients with Covid-19 who are at increased risk of death.
According to the study, published last Friday (26) in the academic journal Science Advances, the amount of genetic material from SARS-CoV-2 (viral RNA) is a reliable indicator to make this prognosis.
“In our study, we were able to determine which biomarkers indicate mortality in the 60 days following the onset of symptoms”, says Daniel Kaufmann, professor of Medicine and one of the authors of the research.
He conducted the studies at CRCHUM, the research arm of the University Hospital Center Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal. “Thanks to our data, we have successfully developed and validated a statistical model based on a blood biomarker [o RNA viral]”, he added.
The researchers collected blood samples from 279 patients hospitalized by Covid-19, classifying them into different degrees of severity — from moderate to critical. Samples were collected 11 days after symptom onset, and patients continued to be monitored for a minimum of two months after collection.
Divided into three groups, the scientists observed different biomarkers in the samples. The first group measured the amount of inflammatory proteins. Simultaneously, another group of researchers measured the amount of viral RNA, while a third team assessed the levels of antibodies fighting the virus. The aim was to test the hypothesis that one or more of these immunological indicators were associated with higher mortality.
“Among all the biomarkers we looked at, we found that the amount of viral RNA in the blood was the one that was directly associated with mortality and the one that provided the most accurate prognosis, once our model was adjusted for the age and sex of the patient. patient,” says Elsa Brunet-Ratnasingham, a doctoral student in Kaufmann’s laboratory and co-author of the study. “We even realized that adding additional biomarkers did not improve the quality of the prognosis”, he pointed out.
To confirm the study’s effectiveness, the scientists tested the model on two independent groups of infected patients from Jewish General Hospital hospitals (recruited during the first wave of the pandemic) and the Center Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal (during the second and third waves ). The model worked for both groups.
Researchers now want to put the discovery into practice. Knowing which patients are at higher risk of death, it is possible that physicians will be able to offer more specific treatments for each case.
“It would be interesting to use the model to monitor patients with the following question in mind: ‘When you give new treatments that have proven effective, is viral load still a predictor of mortality?'” asks Kaufmann.
Reference: CNN Brasil
