We are talking about bets on the possible actions of the parties to the conflict in the Middle East: what the Israeli army will do in Lebanon, when the fire will cease, whether larger-scale military operations will begin this year.
Some market participants were concerned that such forecasts “turn a military conflict into a football match on which you can bet.” Vitalik Buterin said that from the point of view of a trader, Polymarket is a betting site, and from the viewer’s point of view, it is a news site. According to the Ethereum co-founder, it’s not about making money from bad things, but about creating an environment where words have consequences – without regard to government or corporate censors.
“There are all sorts of people on Twitter and the Internet making malicious or inaccurate predictions about conflicts. Therefore, being able to see first-hand the opinions of people who estimate the probability of an event to be 2% or 50% is a valuable feature. This will help people stay sane,” Buterin commented.
Blockchain oracle provider Chainlink Zach Rynes expressed concerns about the development of a market for predictions related to murder – in order to achieve a certain result, people can take real actions that threaten life or public order. Rhines believes that any prediction market associated with an influential event can provoke action in the real world, even if this was not specifically intended.
Buterin vowed to oppose such markets. The Ethereum co-founder suggested that forecasting platforms are still far from reaching such a scale. However, in order to avoid possible negative consequences, Polymarket should introduce restrictions.
“For me, the red line is whether the market acts as an incentive to do bad things so that people can trade inside information,” Buterin explained.
In September, Buterin spoke out in favor of individual staking, saying it could increase the decentralization of the blockchain and reduce the likelihood of “51% attacks.” Recently, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson called Buterin a dictator, on whom, according to Hoskinson, the entire concept of Ethereum rests.
Source: Bits
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