Vladimir Putin: His power is being tested in Central Asia

Sensing that the Russia has been weakened by its war in Ukraine, some of the most its close allies in Central Asia are demonstrating a new dynamic stance. The five former Soviet republics of the region are increasingly raising their stature in Moscow, realizing the new leverage they possess, as Russia is turning to their markets and their own trade routes to circumvent Western sanctions.

The new dynamic was captured in stark fashion when Russian President Vladimir Putin was faced with a 7-minute outburst by the leader of Tajikistan, one of the smallest and poorest countries in the region, at a meeting in Kazakhstan last week.

“We want respect. Nothing else. Respectsaid Imomali Rahmon, president of Tajikistan since 1994, complaining that Moscow’s attitude has not improved since the Soviet era.

Putin listened, embarrassed. Video of that speech, which was not part of the official coverage of the October 14 summit, was released over the weekend, during which he called on his southern neighbors to build new supply chains after Western sanctions over Ukraine caused major problems. in the trade of Russia.

Tokayev also complained about personal attacks on country leaders “poisoning the atmosphere of cooperation” in a possible reference to frequent criticism of Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Russian media. Kazakh state television aired a selection of street interviews in which participants said the war in Ukraine casts doubt on whether any post-Soviet unity still exists. He also emphasized that which characterized provocative behavior by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, considered by many to be Putin’s proxy, who interrupted one of Tokayev’s speeches. In the video, Tokayev can be seen responding with a disparaging smile.

However, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the largest countries in Central Asia, are careful not to compete with Moscow because they still see Russia as a regional sentinel whose help they might need in a crisis, said Alisher Ilhamov, a Britain-based adviser on Central Asia issues.

He said that in the long term, however, China’s influence as a regional “big brother” is expected to strengthen at the expense of Russia if the war continues to go badly for Putin: “At the moment we see Russia ceding to China this role as a big protector for the countries of Central Asia. The gap will not remain unfilled – it will be filled step by step by China.”