Waack: War and politics are the field of the unpredictable

The governments of the United States, United Kingdom and Germany are asking their citizens to leave Lebanon as quickly as possible.

The reason is the fear that the conflict currently centered in the Gaza Strip will expand to other regions, especially in the border area between northern Israel and southern Lebanon, governed by a militia much stronger than Hamas, the Hezbollah, a Shiite group openly allied with Iran.

But not only. An American warship operating in the Red Sea shot down three cruise missiles and several drones fired by Yemeni rebels, also linked to Iran, and said to be flying towards the Israeli area.

The fear of an expansion of the war is directly linked to the actions that Israel will soon adopt, according to the Israeli government itself. It is the land invasion of the Gaza Strip, the only way that Israel has to achieve its declared objective of completely destroying Hamas, the group that led the terrorist atrocities of the last seven days.

It is a military operation that depends on and, in turn, conditions politics, both in Israel and in the Middle East and around the world.

The number of soldiers and heavy material that Israel has concentrated on the outskirts of Gaza suggests the largest combined military operation since southern Lebanon’s long war with Hezbollah almost twenty years ago. But there is no more than a few indications about what will come after the military operation, which is expected to last several weeks.

Large and long military operations, like the one that appears to be beginning in Gaza, always begin by suggesting that definitive results will be achieved soon. But war and politics are the realm of the unpredictable.

Source: CNN Brasil

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