Markets operate this Wednesday morning (23) with an eye on the Ukrainian war and American interest rates.
Starting abroad, American futures fall reflecting a climate of tension in Ukraine due to fears about Russia’s use of nuclear weapons and forecasts of rising interest rates in the United States.
US President Joe Biden is due to arrive around 4 pm to attend a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) summit tomorrow, with leaders from the G-7, a group that brings together some of the world’s largest economies, and members of the European Union.
Countries are expected to announce a new round of economic sanctions on Russia. One of the central points under discussion is a possible European embargo on Russian oil.
But EU members attending meetings this week have signaled the embargo is unlikely at this point, especially with countries like Germany and the Netherlands saying their economies could stall if Russia’s energy imports are cut.
Crude, which was up 7% on Monday with the possibility of an embargo, fell on signs that sanctioning Russian oil was unlikely now. But today oil is back up nearly 4% to $119.
In addition to the war, attention is turned to the speech of Jerome Powell, president of the FED – American central bank -, who has been signaling that the priority in the United States at the moment is to contain inflation, so interest rates can rise more and faster than expected.
Stocks in Asia closed higher reflecting the stimulus announcements in the Chinese economy and the rally in New York yesterday. Tokyo rose 3% reflecting Fotbank’s 7% rise.
In Europe, stocks fell following a decline in the US market and reflecting inflation data in the UK, which was at its highest level since 1992.
Brazil
In Brazil, the Brazilian stock market rose yesterday for the fifth day in a row, closing at 117,000 points, the highest since September, and the dollar closed at R$4.91, the lowest since September 2021.
The rise in raw materials in the world, driven by the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further interest rate hikes here, attracts foreign investment and helps boost the stock market and bring down the dollar.
Yesterday’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) minutes left room for different interpretations, but future interest rates rose and the dollar fell shortly after the text proving that the market saw the Central Bank’s (BC) tone as harsher.
Luiz Fernando Figueiredo, former director of the BC assessed that the bank had a tougher tone in making it clear that if the scenario changes, interest rates can rise further and is super open to that.
Nova Futura highlights after the strong highs of the last few days, today, the stock market may have correction and the dollar may test the level of R$ 4.90.
Indexes
The Ibovespa futures traded down 0.36% this morning, at 117,830 points. The dollar fell 0.36%, quoted at R$4.89, and the S&P futures fell 0.41%.
Agenda of the Day
On the agenda, the IPC-S (Weekly Consumer Price Index) has just been released, which accelerated to 0.64% in the second quadrissemana in March. Exchange flow leaves at 2:30 pm.
BC director Fernanda Guardado and president Campos Neto speak at events this morning. The balance sheet season continues, with Equatorial, Hapvida, Locaweb and Mais Empresas.
In the US, Jerome Powell speaks at 9 am and regional members in the afternoon. In addition, it also has data on new home sales at 11:00 am and weekly oil inventories at 11:30 am.
Source: CNN Brasil
