A projection made by economist André Braz, from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNN, points out that the National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) should have a high of 0.6% in March. With the result, the National Index of Special Consumer Prices (IPCA-E), from January to March this year, should reach 2.17%.
Both will be released this Friday morning (25) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Prior to inflation, the IPCA-15 considers the second half of the previous month and the first of the current month, that is, it covers the period from February 12 to March 16. The IPCA-E brings the quarterly index of the IPCA-15.
The IPCA-15 rates registered in January and February were, respectively, 0.58% and 0.99%. With the forecast of 0.6% for the month of March, the estimate of 2.17% by economist André Braz is reached.
These results, according to the expert, still do not reflect the impacts of the war between Ukraine and Russia due to the data collection period.
“No effect from oil or even wheat. This is because the escalation of the increase in the price of wheat and flour and the entire chain of derivatives, as well as fuel, had an increase right at the end of the IPCA-15 collection. So, it should capture very little of these more recent effects of inflation”, explains Braz.
The same is noted by the expert on the influence of gasoline. With the adjustment by Petrobras starting on March 11, it will not yet be possible to measure the impact of the increase in fuel on the index.
“There was no time then to collect new gasoline prices, especially because, to measure inflation, you need to collect fuel prices throughout the month. So, on most days of the IPCA-15, gasoline was at the old price”, points out Braz.
However, the prices of in natura foods, that is, foods that are not industrialized, can boost the numbers, according to the economist. He cites that products such as beets, carrots and onions can be the most affected by excessive rain and summer heat.
Other items that should gain relevance in the disclosure, according to André Braz, would be home appliances and the service sector, which have no direct influence on the conflict in Eastern Europe.
“Durable goods, new and used cars should appear with some prominence, in addition to home appliances and electronic equipment. Some services, such as a restaurant and a beauty salon, should also appear”, quotes the economist.
According to Braz, the IPCA-15 for the month of April should already capture the impacts of the war in Ukraine on its results. The trend, according to him, is for the index to be between 0.9% and 1%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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