War could take oil to levels never seen in history, says researcher

Although he considers it “very difficult to make an estimate”, Rodrigo Leão, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, believes that the price of oil may “reach values ​​never seen before in history.”

In an interview with CNN Radio, he explained that while the war in Ukraine is ongoing, there will be price volatility: “If there is progress on energy sanctions or if Russia decides to block exports, the price can exceed 200 dollars, we will have a high price. .”

“If tensions advance, we can easily overcome this barrier, today it is not known how the war will unfold”, he added.

In the case of Brazil, the researcher believes that the measures discussed, such as ICMS taxation and the stabilization fund, “are innocuous”. In war scenarios, in which prices fluctuate a lot, another posture is required to avoid transfers to the consumer – and the measures, for him, do not seem to be enough.

As an example, Rodrigo Leão cited political decisions.

“There are countries holding prices, major derivatives producers have the ability to eventually hold back while the war lasts, it is costly, but they are political decisions.”

With regard to natural gas, the expert highlights Europe’s extensive dependence on Russian exports. About 40% of European gas comes from Russia and there is no global production capable of promptly replacing it.

“Even the US does not have enough idle capacity to supplant Russian gas and there are no other countries that supply Europe via pipeline. It would be necessary to build, in addition to not having other energies capable of supplying the gas.”